Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +2.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Pavelski on offensive-zone draws (56% H2H, 41 meetings). Pavelski wins 53.6% vs left-shot opponents — Koivu shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pavelski 54.1% vs Koivu 51.8% (+2.4%)
H2H factor
Pavelski leads 50-43 in 93 meetings
Offensive zone
Pavelski 82.9%
Defensive zone
Koivu 52.9%
Neutral zone
Pavelski 64.5%
Result
Joe Pavelski favored at 67.2%
67.2%
32.8%
Pavelski
Koivu
Head-to-Head Record
50
-
43
(93 meetings)
50
43
Pavelski
Koivu
Last 10: Pavelski 4-6 Koivu
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
23
18
Pavelski
Koivu
41 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Koivu
14
15
Pavelski
Koivu
29 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Pavelski
13
10
Pavelski
Koivu
23 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pavelski
Koivu
Edge
Even Strength
53.6% (8,791)
51.9% (3,221)
+1.7%
Power Play
58.2% (2,122)
59.3% (437)
-1.1%
Penalty Kill
50.9% (1,138)
48.0% (764)
+2.9%
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Koivu shoots left. Pavelski is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (9,103).
Pavelski shoots right. Koivu is 52.0% vs right-shot opponents (1,337).
Home / Away
Pavelski
Koivu
Home
56.4% (5,998)
53.5% (2,281)
Away
52.0% (6,076)
50.1% (2,209)
By Period
Pavelski
Koivu
P1
53.5%
51.1%
P2
55.2%
52.6%
P3
53.9%
51.8%
OT
52.3%
52.3%
Final 5 min
54.4%
55.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
54.2%
Koivu
46.0%▼
50.0%
51.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 9, 2014 | 3 | 10:30 | Offensive | Saku Koivu |
| Apr 9, 2014 | 3 | 10:20 | Defensive | Saku Koivu |
| Apr 9, 2014 | 1 | 05:53 | Defensive | Saku Koivu |
| Apr 9, 2014 | 1 | 00:32 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Apr 9, 2014 | 1 | 00:15 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 20, 2014 | 3 | 13:17 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 20, 2014 | 3 | 03:02 | Defensive | Saku Koivu |
| Dec 31, 2013 | 1 | 10:57 | Defensive | Saku Koivu |
| Nov 30, 2013 | 3 | 17:22 | Offensive | Saku Koivu |
| Nov 30, 2013 | 3 | 12:50 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 30, 2013 | 3 | 06:39 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 30, 2013 | 3 | 03:54 | Defensive | Saku Koivu |
| Nov 30, 2013 | 3 | 02:45 | Offensive | Saku Koivu |
| Nov 30, 2013 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Saku Koivu |
| Nov 30, 2013 | 2 | 12:02 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 30, 2013 | 2 | 02:50 | Defensive | Saku Koivu |
| Nov 30, 2013 | 1 | 18:22 | Offensive | Saku Koivu |
| Nov 30, 2013 | 1 | 10:56 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 30, 2013 | 1 | 07:14 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 30, 2013 | 1 | 05:59 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |