Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +6.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Pahlsson on defensive-zone draws (60% H2H, 10 meetings). Pavelski wins 56.7% vs left-shot opponents — Pahlsson shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pavelski 57.8% vs Pahlsson 52.4% (+6.1%)
H2H factor
Pahlsson leads 12-8 in 20 meetings
Offensive zone
Pavelski 71.6%
Defensive zone
Pahlsson 88.6%
Neutral zone
Pahlsson 56.2%
Result
Samuel Pahlsson favored at 65.4%
34.6%
65.4%
Pavelski
Pahlsson
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
12
(20 meetings)
8
12
Pavelski
Pahlsson
Last 10: Pavelski 3-7 Pahlsson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pahlsson
2
3
Pavelski
Pahlsson
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Pahlsson
4
6
Pavelski
Pahlsson
10 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Pahlsson
2
3
Pavelski
Pahlsson
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pavelski
Pahlsson
Edge
Even Strength
57.8% (569)
54.3% (782)
+3.5%
Power Play
60.2% (161)
62.5% (16)
-2.3%
Penalty Kill
59.5% (121)
45.8% (216)
+13.7%
On penalty kill, Pavelski has a +13.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Pahlsson shoots left. Pavelski is 56.7% vs left-shot opponents (681).
Pavelski shoots right. Pahlsson is 53.5% vs right-shot opponents (340).
Home / Away
Pavelski
Pahlsson
Home
61.0% (403)
51.8% (508)
Away
56.6% (461)
53.5% (518)
By Period
Pavelski
Pahlsson
P1
62.9%
52.8%
P2
56.6%
52.1%
P3
57.1%
53.0%
OT
57.9%
53.8%
Final 5 min
53.6%
51.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
58.7%
Pahlsson
54.0%▼
59.0%
52.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 21, 2012 | 3 | 15:32 | Defensive | Samuel Pahlsson |
| Feb 21, 2012 | 3 | 15:17 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 21, 2012 | 3 | 07:56 | Defensive | Samuel Pahlsson |
| Feb 21, 2012 | 2 | 11:59 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 21, 2012 | 1 | 19:50 | Offensive | Samuel Pahlsson |
| Feb 21, 2012 | 1 | 12:52 | Defensive | Samuel Pahlsson |
| Jan 31, 2012 | 2 | 19:14 | Offensive | Samuel Pahlsson |
| Jan 14, 2012 | 3 | 17:03 | Neutral | Samuel Pahlsson |
| Jan 14, 2012 | 3 | 14:57 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 14, 2012 | 3 | 12:02 | Neutral | Samuel Pahlsson |
| Jan 14, 2012 | 3 | 11:52 | Offensive | Samuel Pahlsson |
| Jan 14, 2012 | 3 | 06:53 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 14, 2012 | 1 | 14:33 | Defensive | Samuel Pahlsson |
| Jan 14, 2012 | 1 | 14:11 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 14, 2012 | 1 | 02:36 | Neutral | Samuel Pahlsson |
| Jan 5, 2012 | 3 | 14:48 | Defensive | Samuel Pahlsson |
| Jan 5, 2012 | 3 | 07:37 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 5, 2012 | 3 | 02:30 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 5, 2012 | 1 | 09:48 | Defensive | Samuel Pahlsson |
| Jan 5, 2012 | 1 | 05:54 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |