Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +2.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Pavelski on defensive-zone draws (72% H2H, 25 meetings). Pavelski wins 53.6% vs left-shot opponents — Aho shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pavelski 54.1% vs Aho 51.3% (+2.9%)
H2H factor
Pavelski leads 31-29 in 60 meetings
Offensive zone
Pavelski 56.0%
Defensive zone
Pavelski 74.2%
Neutral zone
Pavelski 65.7%
Result
Joe Pavelski favored at 65.9%
65.9%
34.1%
Pavelski
Aho
Head-to-Head Record
31
-
29
(60 meetings)
31
29
Pavelski
Aho
Last 10: Pavelski 6-4 Aho
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Aho
7
14
Pavelski
Aho
21 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
18
7
Pavelski
Aho
25 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Aho
6
8
Pavelski
Aho
14 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pavelski
Aho
Edge
Even Strength
53.6% (8,791)
50.1% (6,415)
+3.5%
Power Play
58.2% (2,122)
59.1% (1,297)
-0.9%
Penalty Kill
50.9% (1,138)
46.0% (446)
+4.9%
On penalty kill, Pavelski has a +4.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Aho shoots left. Pavelski is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (9,103).
Pavelski shoots right. Aho is 51.6% vs right-shot opponents (3,013).
Home / Away
Pavelski
Aho
Home
56.4% (5,998)
52.4% (4,199)
Away
52.0% (6,076)
50.2% (3,959)
By Period
Pavelski
Aho
P1
53.5%
51.2%
P2
55.2%
52.1%
P3
53.9%
50.8%
OT
52.3%
48.9%
Final 5 min
54.4%
50.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
54.2%
Aho
54.0%▼
56.5%
51.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 25, 2023 | 3 | 13:34 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 25, 2023 | 3 | 06:12 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 25, 2023 | 1 | 11:13 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Mar 24, 2022 | 3 | 06:46 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 24, 2022 | 3 | 03:24 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 24, 2022 | 1 | 03:04 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Nov 30, 2021 | 3 | 06:45 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 30, 2021 | 2 | 00:47 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Apr 27, 2021 | 3 | 06:23 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Apr 27, 2021 | 3 | 00:31 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Apr 26, 2021 | 3 | 15:46 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Apr 26, 2021 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Apr 26, 2021 | 2 | 19:08 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Apr 26, 2021 | 2 | 08:38 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Apr 26, 2021 | 2 | 04:11 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Apr 26, 2021 | 1 | 06:57 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Apr 26, 2021 | 1 | 04:41 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Apr 26, 2021 | 1 | 04:28 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Apr 4, 2021 | 3 | 13:32 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Apr 4, 2021 | 3 | 06:17 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |