Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +4.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Pavelski on offensive-zone draws (70% H2H, 23 meetings). Pavelski wins 53.6% vs left-shot opponents — Horcoff shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pavelski 54.1% vs Horcoff 49.6% (+4.7%)
H2H factor
Pavelski leads 34-26 in 60 meetings
Offensive zone
Pavelski 88.0%
Defensive zone
Pavelski 68.2%
Neutral zone
Pavelski 80.5%
Result
Joe Pavelski favored at 80.1%
80.1%
19.9%
Pavelski
Horcoff
Head-to-Head Record
34
-
26
(60 meetings)
34
26
Pavelski
Horcoff
Last 10: Pavelski 5-5 Horcoff
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
16
7
Pavelski
Horcoff
23 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Horcoff
6
10
Pavelski
Horcoff
16 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Pavelski
12
9
Pavelski
Horcoff
21 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pavelski
Horcoff
Edge
Even Strength
53.6% (8,791)
50.6% (3,133)
+3.0%
Power Play
58.2% (2,122)
51.4% (555)
+6.8%
Penalty Kill
50.9% (1,138)
43.0% (567)
+7.9%
On penalty kill, Pavelski has a +7.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Horcoff shoots left. Pavelski is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (9,103).
Pavelski shoots right. Horcoff is 51.2% vs right-shot opponents (1,303).
Home / Away
Pavelski
Horcoff
Home
56.4% (5,998)
51.1% (2,199)
Away
52.0% (6,076)
48.0% (2,104)
By Period
Pavelski
Horcoff
P1
53.5%
48.2%
P2
55.2%
49.5%
P3
53.9%
50.9%
OT
52.3%
51.9%
Final 5 min
54.4%
49.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
54.2%
Horcoff
62.0%▲
55.5%
49.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 4, 2015 | 1 | 05:07 | Defensive | Shawn Horcoff |
| Nov 7, 2015 | 3 | 15:02 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 7, 2015 | 3 | 12:47 | Defensive | Shawn Horcoff |
| Nov 7, 2015 | 3 | 12:38 | Defensive | Shawn Horcoff |
| Nov 7, 2015 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 7, 2015 | 1 | 15:18 | Defensive | Shawn Horcoff |
| Oct 10, 2015 | 1 | 18:32 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Apr 6, 2015 | 2 | 10:39 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Apr 6, 2015 | 1 | 02:27 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 8, 2014 | 2 | 18:55 | Neutral | Shawn Horcoff |
| Nov 8, 2014 | 2 | 16:54 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 5, 2014 | 2 | 18:06 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 5, 2014 | 2 | 13:10 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 5, 2014 | 1 | 09:22 | Neutral | Shawn Horcoff |
| Dec 21, 2013 | 1 | 14:03 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 21, 2013 | 1 | 01:29 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Oct 17, 2013 | 2 | 12:58 | Neutral | Shawn Horcoff |
| Oct 17, 2013 | 1 | 17:52 | Neutral | Shawn Horcoff |
| Mar 20, 2013 | 3 | 00:55 | Offensive | Shawn Horcoff |
| Mar 20, 2013 | 2 | 10:00 | Defensive | Shawn Horcoff |