Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +2.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Horcoff on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pavelski 51.6% vs Horcoff 49.2% (+2.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Horcoff 58.9%
Defensive zone
Horcoff 66.6%
Neutral zone
Horcoff 55.4%
Result
Shawn Horcoff favored at 60.0%
40.0%
60.0%
Pavelski
Horcoff
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
5
(8 meetings)
3
5
Pavelski
Horcoff
Last 8: Pavelski 3-5 Horcoff
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Horcoff
0
1
Pavelski
Horcoff
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Horcoff
0
3
Pavelski
Horcoff
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Pavelski
3
1
Pavelski
Horcoff
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pavelski
Horcoff
Edge
Even Strength
50.4% (480)
46.9% (318)
+3.5%
Power Play
51.5% (97)
64.9% (94)
-13.4%
Penalty Kill
60.2% (83)
39.8% (88)
+20.4%
On penalty kill, Pavelski has a +20.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Horcoff shoots left. Pavelski is 51.0% vs left-shot opponents (490).
Pavelski shoots right. Horcoff is 50.0% vs right-shot opponents (150).
Home / Away
Pavelski
Horcoff
Home
53.1% (311)
46.7% (289)
Away
50.7% (349)
52.1% (211)
By Period
Pavelski
Horcoff
P1
55.4%
49.4%
P2
49.6%
47.0%
P3
51.7%
50.9%
OT
36.4%
42.9%
Final 5 min
54.5%
48.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
51.8%
Horcoff
62.0%▲
55.5%
49.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 20, 2013 | 3 | 00:55 | Offensive | Shawn Horcoff |
| Mar 20, 2013 | 2 | 10:00 | Defensive | Shawn Horcoff |
| Mar 20, 2013 | 1 | 16:19 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 20, 2013 | 1 | 16:15 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 22, 2013 | 2 | 17:36 | Defensive | Shawn Horcoff |
| Jan 22, 2013 | 1 | 19:20 | Neutral | Shawn Horcoff |
| Jan 22, 2013 | 1 | 03:03 | Defensive | Shawn Horcoff |
| Jan 22, 2013 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |