Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +5.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Pavelski on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Pavelski wins 54.4% vs left-shot opponents — Plekanec shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pavelski 54.5% vs Plekanec 49.8% (+5.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Pavelski 89.4%
Defensive zone
Pavelski 68.5%
Neutral zone
Pavelski 89.5%
Result
Joe Pavelski favored at 82.4%
82.4%
17.6%
Pavelski
Plekanec
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
1
(6 meetings)
5
1
Pavelski
Plekanec
Last 6: Pavelski 5-1 Plekanec
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
4
0
Pavelski
Plekanec
4 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Pavelski
Plekanec
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pavelski
Plekanec
Edge
Even Strength
53.6% (657)
49.8% (1,199)
+3.8%
Power Play
60.2% (221)
51.7% (240)
+8.5%
Penalty Kill
51.7% (60)
47.2% (176)
+4.5%
On power play, Pavelski has a +8.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Plekanec shoots left. Pavelski is 54.4% vs left-shot opponents (731).
Pavelski shoots right. Plekanec is 50.7% vs right-shot opponents (629).
Home / Away
Pavelski
Plekanec
Home
57.4% (470)
48.9% (807)
Away
52.6% (468)
50.6% (808)
By Period
Pavelski
Plekanec
P1
53.4%
52.2%
P2
55.6%
49.4%
P3
55.5%
47.4%
OT
62.5%
66.7%
Final 5 min
55.9%
49.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
55.0%
Plekanec
56.0%▬
56.5%
49.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 29, 2016 | 3 | 08:39 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 29, 2016 | 1 | 13:09 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 15, 2015 | 2 | 09:38 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 15, 2015 | 2 | 09:04 | Defensive | Tomas Plekanec |
| Dec 15, 2015 | 2 | 00:14 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 15, 2015 | 1 | 11:45 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |