Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +1.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Pavelski on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Pavelski wins 53.7% vs left-shot opponents — Plekanec shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pavelski 52.2% vs Plekanec 51.1% (+1.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Pavelski 89.8%
Defensive zone
Plekanec 61.3%
Neutral zone
Pavelski 64.7%
Result
Joe Pavelski favored at 64.4%
64.4%
35.6%
Pavelski
Plekanec
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
2
(8 meetings)
6
2
Pavelski
Plekanec
Last 8: Pavelski 6-2 Plekanec
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
3
0
Pavelski
Plekanec
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Plekanec
1
2
Pavelski
Plekanec
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Pavelski
2
0
Pavelski
Plekanec
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pavelski
Plekanec
Edge
Even Strength
51.3% (643)
53.8% (1,081)
-2.5%
Power Play
58.1% (172)
48.6% (70)
+9.5%
Penalty Kill
46.3% (41)
37.8% (201)
+8.5%
On power play, Pavelski has a +9.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Plekanec shoots left. Pavelski is 53.7% vs left-shot opponents (657).
Pavelski shoots right. Plekanec is 52.2% vs right-shot opponents (588).
Home / Away
Pavelski
Plekanec
Home
53.8% (431)
52.3% (725)
Away
51.1% (425)
49.9% (627)
By Period
Pavelski
Plekanec
P1
48.4%
54.6%
P2
52.0%
51.3%
P3
55.6%
47.9%
OT
80.0%
53.8%
Final 5 min
51.6%
50.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
52.5%
Plekanec
56.0%▬
56.5%
51.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 16, 2016 | 2 | 09:12 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 16, 2016 | 1 | 05:36 | Defensive | Tomas Plekanec |
| Dec 2, 2016 | 3 | 10:40 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 2, 2016 | 3 | 00:11 | Defensive | Tomas Plekanec |
| Dec 2, 2016 | 2 | 05:07 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 2, 2016 | 2 | 04:45 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 2, 2016 | 1 | 13:49 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 2, 2016 | 1 | 09:02 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |