Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +1.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Pavelski on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 6 meetings). Pavelski wins 54.6% vs left-shot opponents — Sobotka shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pavelski 52.9% vs Sobotka 51.6% (+1.3%)
H2H factor
Pavelski leads 7-3 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Pavelski 88.0%
Defensive zone
Sobotka 50.5%
Neutral zone
Pavelski 65.2%
Result
Joe Pavelski favored at 77.3%
77.3%
22.7%
Pavelski
Sobotka
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
3
(10 meetings)
7
3
Pavelski
Sobotka
Last 10: Pavelski 7-3 Sobotka
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
6
0
Pavelski
Sobotka
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Sobotka
0
1
Pavelski
Sobotka
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Sobotka
1
2
Pavelski
Sobotka
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pavelski
Sobotka
Edge
Even Strength
54.0% (730)
52.9% (522)
+1.1%
Power Play
57.1% (156)
46.7% (15)
+10.4%
Penalty Kill
41.7% (103)
46.1% (76)
-4.4%
On power play, Pavelski has a +10.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Sobotka shoots left. Pavelski is 54.6% vs left-shot opponents (713).
Pavelski shoots right. Sobotka is 53.2% vs right-shot opponents (216).
Home / Away
Pavelski
Sobotka
Home
55.2% (458)
53.8% (314)
Away
51.4% (531)
49.8% (299)
By Period
Pavelski
Sobotka
P1
54.0%
52.2%
P2
54.5%
52.2%
P3
50.5%
51.1%
OT
60.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
52.8%
49.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
53.2%
Sobotka
50.0%▼
52.5%
51.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 27, 2018 | 3 | 11:29 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 27, 2018 | 3 | 11:22 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 27, 2018 | 2 | 04:53 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 27, 2018 | 1 | 19:04 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 27, 2018 | 1 | 05:12 | Neutral | Vladimir Sobotka |
| Oct 18, 2018 | 3 | 11:42 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Oct 18, 2018 | 3 | 09:29 | Neutral | Vladimir Sobotka |
| Oct 18, 2018 | 2 | 15:03 | Defensive | Vladimir Sobotka |
| Oct 18, 2018 | 1 | 11:21 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Oct 18, 2018 | 1 | 05:54 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |