Scouting Report
Joe Thornton holds a +4.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Backes on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Backes 51.6% vs Thornton 55.6% (-4.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Thornton 71.9%
Defensive zone
Thornton 58.9%
Neutral zone
Thornton 75.3%
Result
Joe Thornton favored at 69.2%
30.8%
69.2%
Backes
Thornton
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
2
(7 meetings)
5
2
Backes
Thornton
Last 7: Backes 5-2 Thornton
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Backes
2
1
Backes
Thornton
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Backes
2
0
Backes
Thornton
2 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Backes
Thornton
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Backes
Thornton
Edge
Even Strength
51.3% (861)
55.1% (836)
-3.8%
Power Play
50.0% (176)
60.8% (181)
-10.8%
Penalty Kill
55.5% (164)
56.1% (82)
-0.6%
On power play, Thornton has a +10.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thornton shoots left. Backes is 50.7% vs left-shot opponents (848).
Backes shoots right. Thornton is 59.3% vs right-shot opponents (514).
Home / Away
Backes
Thornton
Home
53.3% (599)
60.4% (528)
Away
50.2% (602)
52.2% (571)
By Period
Backes
Thornton
P1
53.5%
58.1%
P2
50.3%
55.3%
P3
51.5%
55.0%
OT
50.0%
55.2%
Final 5 min
54.7%
54.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Backes
56.0%▲
49.5%
51.7%
Thornton
44.0%▼
46.5%
56.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 29, 2013 | 3 | 10:56 | Offensive | David Backes |
| Nov 29, 2013 | 1 | 06:40 | Defensive | David Backes |
| Oct 15, 2013 | 3 | 07:50 | Defensive | David Backes |
| Oct 15, 2013 | 3 | 02:13 | Offensive | David Backes |
| Oct 15, 2013 | 2 | 16:48 | Neutral | David Backes |
| Oct 15, 2013 | 1 | 09:55 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |
| Oct 15, 2013 | 1 | 00:43 | Neutral | Joe Thornton |