Scouting Report
Joe Thornton holds a +14.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Thornton on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Kuznetsov wins 38.7% vs left-shot opponents — Thornton shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kuznetsov 39.7% vs Thornton 52.4% (-14.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Thornton 67.5%
Defensive zone
Thornton 83.6%
Neutral zone
Thornton 84.2%
Result
Joe Thornton favored at 79.8%
20.2%
79.8%
Kuznetsov
Thornton
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
3
(8 meetings)
5
3
Kuznetsov
Thornton
Last 8: Kuznetsov 5-3 Thornton
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Kuznetsov
2
0
Kuznetsov
Thornton
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Thornton
0
3
Kuznetsov
Thornton
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kuznetsov
3
0
Kuznetsov
Thornton
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kuznetsov
Thornton
Edge
Even Strength
39.0% (960)
52.5% (638)
-13.5%
Power Play
37.8% (45)
57.1% (35)
-19.3%
Penalty Kill
27.8% (18)
50.0% (2)
-22.2%
On penalty kill, Thornton has a +22.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thornton shoots left. Kuznetsov is 38.7% vs left-shot opponents (695).
Kuznetsov shoots left. Thornton is 51.7% vs left-shot opponents (439).
Home / Away
Kuznetsov
Thornton
Home
40.3% (533)
54.8% (341)
Away
36.9% (490)
50.6% (334)
By Period
Kuznetsov
Thornton
P1
37.8%
55.2%
P2
41.5%
56.5%
P3
36.4%
47.1%
OT
50.0%
25.0%
Final 5 min
31.8%
49.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kuznetsov
46.0%▲
44.0%
38.7%
Thornton
44.0%▼
46.5%
52.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 14, 2019 | 1 | 11:47 | Defensive | Joe Thornton |
| Feb 14, 2019 | 1 | 11:41 | Offensive | Evgeny Kuznetsov |
| Feb 14, 2019 | 1 | 11:33 | Neutral | Evgeny Kuznetsov |
| Jan 22, 2019 | 3 | 17:20 | Defensive | Joe Thornton |
| Jan 22, 2019 | 3 | 17:12 | Defensive | Joe Thornton |
| Jan 22, 2019 | 3 | 10:02 | Neutral | Evgeny Kuznetsov |
| Jan 22, 2019 | 3 | 07:15 | Offensive | Evgeny Kuznetsov |
| Jan 22, 2019 | 1 | 12:11 | Neutral | Evgeny Kuznetsov |