Scouting Report
Joe Thornton holds a +5.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Thornton on defensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). Thornton wins 54.4% vs right-shot opponents — Ward shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Thornton 54.3% vs Ward 48.4% (+5.9%)
H2H factor
Thornton leads 6-5 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Thornton 71.6%
Defensive zone
Ward 55.5%
Neutral zone
Thornton 57.3%
Result
Joe Thornton favored at 56.7%
56.7%
43.3%
Thornton
Ward
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
5
(11 meetings)
6
5
Thornton
Ward
Last 10: Thornton 5-5 Ward
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
2
2
Thornton
Ward
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Thornton
4
1
Thornton
Ward
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Ward
0
2
Thornton
Ward
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Thornton
Ward
Edge
Even Strength
53.5% (6,640)
51.3% (1,186)
+2.2%
Power Play
57.2% (1,387)
53.4% (238)
+3.8%
Penalty Kill
56.7% (427)
35.5% (366)
+21.2%
On penalty kill, Thornton has a +21.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Ward shoots right. Thornton is 54.4% vs right-shot opponents (3,270).
Thornton shoots left. Ward is 48.6% vs left-shot opponents (1,320).
Home / Away
Thornton
Ward
Home
55.8% (4,271)
50.3% (870)
Away
52.8% (4,219)
46.5% (921)
By Period
Thornton
Ward
P1
55.0%
47.6%
P2
53.3%
47.5%
P3
54.4%
50.3%
OT
56.4%
30.8%
Final 5 min
53.7%
45.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Thornton
44.0%▼
46.5%
54.3%
Ward
44.0%▼
47.0%
48.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 14, 2014 | 3 | 14:09 | Neutral | Joel Ward |
| Oct 14, 2014 | 1 | 09:50 | Defensive | Joe Thornton |
| Oct 14, 2014 | 1 | 09:34 | Neutral | Joel Ward |
| Jan 14, 2014 | 3 | 13:04 | Defensive | Joe Thornton |
| Jan 14, 2014 | 3 | 13:01 | Offensive | Joel Ward |
| Jan 14, 2014 | 3 | 01:02 | Defensive | Joel Ward |
| Jan 14, 2014 | 2 | 08:34 | Offensive | Joel Ward |
| Jan 14, 2014 | 2 | 02:05 | Defensive | Joe Thornton |
| Feb 15, 2011 | 2 | 18:49 | Defensive | Joe Thornton |
| Dec 15, 2010 | 3 | 18:58 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |
| Dec 15, 2010 | 2 | 14:28 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |