Scouting Report
Joe Thornton holds a +10.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Thornton on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Thornton wins 59.3% vs right-shot opponents — Ward shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Thornton 55.6% vs Ward 46.8% (+10.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Ward 56.1%
Defensive zone
Ward 53.5%
Neutral zone
Ward 60.1%
Result
Joel Ward favored at 54.5%
45.5%
54.5%
Thornton
Ward
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Thornton
Ward
Last 5: Thornton 2-3 Ward
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Ward
0
2
Thornton
Ward
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Thornton
2
1
Thornton
Ward
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Thornton
Ward
Edge
Even Strength
55.1% (836)
55.0% (80)
+0.1%
Power Play
60.8% (181)
43.9% (57)
+16.9%
Penalty Kill
56.1% (82)
33.9% (62)
+22.2%
On penalty kill, Thornton has a +22.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Ward shoots right. Thornton is 59.3% vs right-shot opponents (514).
Thornton shoots left. Ward is 48.5% vs left-shot opponents (167).
Home / Away
Thornton
Ward
Home
60.4% (528)
50.9% (114)
Away
52.2% (571)
37.6% (85)
By Period
Thornton
Ward
P1
58.1%
42.6%
P2
55.3%
38.5%
P3
55.0%
54.8%
OT
55.2%
28.6%
Final 5 min
54.1%
41.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Thornton
44.0%▼
46.5%
56.1%
Ward
44.0%▼
47.0%
45.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 14, 2014 | 3 | 13:04 | Defensive | Joe Thornton |
| Jan 14, 2014 | 3 | 13:01 | Offensive | Joel Ward |
| Jan 14, 2014 | 3 | 01:02 | Defensive | Joel Ward |
| Jan 14, 2014 | 2 | 08:34 | Offensive | Joel Ward |
| Jan 14, 2014 | 2 | 02:05 | Defensive | Joe Thornton |