Scouting Report
Joe Thornton holds a +8.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Thornton on offensive-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings). Thornton wins 57.7% vs left-shot opponents — Mitchell shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Thornton 57.4% vs Mitchell 49.8% (+8.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Thornton 64.3%
Defensive zone
Thornton 53.8%
Neutral zone
Thornton 62.7%
Result
Joe Thornton favored at 62.6%
62.6%
37.4%
Thornton
Mitchell
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
3
(7 meetings)
4
3
Thornton
Mitchell
Last 7: Thornton 4-3 Mitchell
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Thornton
3
2
Thornton
Mitchell
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Mitchell
0
1
Thornton
Mitchell
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Thornton
1
0
Thornton
Mitchell
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Thornton
Mitchell
Edge
Even Strength
57.0% (540)
45.9% (231)
+11.1%
Power Play
64.0% (111)
52.2% (67)
+11.8%
Penalty Kill
62.0% (50)
65.2% (46)
-3.2%
On power play, Thornton has a +11.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Mitchell shoots left. Thornton is 57.7% vs left-shot opponents (478).
Thornton shoots left. Mitchell is 49.2% vs left-shot opponents (248).
Home / Away
Thornton
Mitchell
Home
56.7% (353)
59.0% (134)
Away
60.3% (348)
43.8% (210)
By Period
Thornton
Mitchell
P1
59.3%
48.0%
P2
60.1%
49.2%
P3
57.1%
50.9%
OT
47.6%
100.0%
Final 5 min
58.0%
44.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Thornton
44.0%▼
46.5%
58.5%
Mitchell
66.0%▲
56.5%
49.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 10, 2013 | 3 | 09:06 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |
| Mar 10, 2013 | 1 | 06:47 | Neutral | Joe Thornton |
| Feb 26, 2013 | 3 | 18:58 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |
| Feb 26, 2013 | 3 | 11:39 | Offensive | John Mitchell |
| Feb 26, 2013 | 2 | 14:34 | Defensive | John Mitchell |
| Feb 26, 2013 | 1 | 14:06 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |
| Jan 26, 2013 | 2 | 14:06 | Offensive | John Mitchell |