Scouting Report
Joe Thornton holds a +4.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Mitchell on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 8 meetings). Thornton wins 55.5% vs left-shot opponents — Mitchell shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Thornton 52.6% vs Mitchell 49.0% (+4.1%)
H2H factor
Mitchell leads 10-4 in 14 meetings
Offensive zone
Thornton 65.5%
Defensive zone
Mitchell 79.1%
Neutral zone
Mitchell 52.9%
Result
John Mitchell favored at 60.9%
39.1%
60.9%
Thornton
Mitchell
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
10
(14 meetings)
4
10
Thornton
Mitchell
Last 10: Thornton 4-6 Mitchell
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Mitchell
0
1
Thornton
Mitchell
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Mitchell
2
3
Thornton
Mitchell
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Mitchell
2
6
Thornton
Mitchell
8 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Thornton
Mitchell
Edge
Even Strength
51.8% (577)
52.5% (676)
-0.7%
Power Play
57.7% (168)
55.6% (18)
+2.1%
Penalty Kill
37.5% (8)
32.3% (155)
+5.2%
On penalty kill, Thornton has a +5.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Mitchell shoots left. Thornton is 55.5% vs left-shot opponents (449).
Thornton shoots left. Mitchell is 50.5% vs left-shot opponents (541).
Home / Away
Thornton
Mitchell
Home
53.0% (379)
52.2% (450)
Away
52.9% (374)
45.1% (399)
By Period
Thornton
Mitchell
P1
53.3%
51.2%
P2
50.7%
50.2%
P3
54.3%
44.8%
OT
62.5%
80.0%
Final 5 min
51.9%
51.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Thornton
44.0%▼
46.5%
53.0%
Mitchell
66.0%▲
56.5%
48.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 24, 2016 | 3 | 04:08 | Neutral | John Mitchell |
| Dec 28, 2015 | 3 | 11:27 | Neutral | Joe Thornton |
| Dec 28, 2015 | 1 | 14:28 | Neutral | John Mitchell |
| Dec 28, 2015 | 1 | 08:46 | Neutral | John Mitchell |
| Dec 28, 2015 | 1 | 07:50 | Offensive | John Mitchell |
| Nov 1, 2015 | 3 | 17:38 | Neutral | John Mitchell |
| Nov 1, 2015 | 3 | 17:25 | Defensive | Joe Thornton |
| Nov 1, 2015 | 3 | 14:46 | Neutral | Joe Thornton |
| Nov 1, 2015 | 3 | 01:16 | Defensive | Joe Thornton |
| Nov 1, 2015 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | John Mitchell |
| Nov 1, 2015 | 2 | 17:15 | Defensive | John Mitchell |
| Nov 1, 2015 | 2 | 04:35 | Defensive | John Mitchell |
| Nov 1, 2015 | 1 | 07:24 | Defensive | John Mitchell |
| Nov 1, 2015 | 1 | 05:17 | Neutral | John Mitchell |