Scouting Report
Joe Thornton holds a +4.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Thornton on offensive-zone draws (93% H2H, 27 meetings). Thornton wins 54.4% vs right-shot opponents — Brodziak shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Thornton 54.3% vs Brodziak 49.7% (+4.6%)
H2H factor
Thornton leads 45-39 in 84 meetings
Offensive zone
Thornton 80.3%
Defensive zone
Brodziak 73.2%
Neutral zone
Thornton 57.6%
Result
Joe Thornton favored at 50.6%
50.6%
49.4%
Thornton
Brodziak
Head-to-Head Record
45
-
39
(84 meetings)
45
39
Thornton
Brodziak
Last 10: Thornton 4-6 Brodziak
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Thornton
25
2
Thornton
Brodziak
27 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Brodziak
9
30
Thornton
Brodziak
39 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Thornton
11
7
Thornton
Brodziak
18 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Thornton
Brodziak
Edge
Even Strength
53.5% (6,640)
50.5% (6,432)
+3.0%
Power Play
57.2% (1,387)
52.8% (326)
+4.4%
Penalty Kill
56.7% (427)
45.5% (1,344)
+11.2%
On penalty kill, Thornton has a +11.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Brodziak shoots right. Thornton is 54.4% vs right-shot opponents (3,270).
Thornton shoots left. Brodziak is 48.6% vs left-shot opponents (5,811).
Home / Away
Thornton
Brodziak
Home
55.8% (4,271)
50.4% (4,044)
Away
52.8% (4,219)
49.0% (4,089)
By Period
Thornton
Brodziak
P1
55.0%
49.2%
P2
53.3%
50.7%
P3
54.4%
49.5%
OT
56.4%
42.0%
Final 5 min
53.7%
49.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Thornton
44.0%▼
46.5%
54.3%
Brodziak
50.0%▬
50.0%
49.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 8, 2019 | 3 | 02:55 | Defensive | Kyle Brodziak |
| Dec 29, 2018 | 2 | 00:45 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |
| Dec 29, 2018 | 2 | 00:41 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |
| Nov 20, 2018 | 3 | 19:15 | Defensive | Kyle Brodziak |
| Nov 20, 2018 | 3 | 19:03 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |
| Nov 20, 2018 | 3 | 11:14 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |
| Nov 20, 2018 | 3 | 04:36 | Neutral | Kyle Brodziak |
| Nov 20, 2018 | 2 | 17:56 | Defensive | Kyle Brodziak |
| Nov 20, 2018 | 2 | 01:11 | Defensive | Kyle Brodziak |
| Mar 16, 2017 | 3 | 01:42 | Defensive | Kyle Brodziak |
| Mar 16, 2017 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Joe Thornton |
| Mar 16, 2017 | 2 | 09:50 | Defensive | Kyle Brodziak |
| Jan 14, 2017 | 2 | 03:03 | Defensive | Kyle Brodziak |
| Nov 17, 2016 | 2 | 15:56 | Neutral | Kyle Brodziak |
| Nov 17, 2016 | 1 | 02:02 | Defensive | Kyle Brodziak |
| Mar 22, 2016 | 3 | 18:54 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |
| Mar 22, 2016 | 3 | 18:37 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |
| Dec 11, 2014 | 2 | 13:56 | Defensive | Kyle Brodziak |
| Oct 30, 2014 | 1 | 10:20 | Defensive | Kyle Brodziak |
| Jan 25, 2014 | 1 | 18:11 | Defensive | Joe Thornton |