Scouting Report
Joe Thornton holds a +4.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Chipchura on defensive-zone draws (83% H2H, 6 meetings). Thornton wins 54.3% vs left-shot opponents — Chipchura shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Thornton 54.3% vs Chipchura 50.3% (+4.0%)
H2H factor
Chipchura leads 12-8 in 20 meetings
Offensive zone
Chipchura 61.9%
Defensive zone
Chipchura 80.4%
Neutral zone
Chipchura 71.4%
Result
Kyle Chipchura favored at 71.2%
28.8%
71.2%
Thornton
Chipchura
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
12
(20 meetings)
8
12
Thornton
Chipchura
Last 10: Thornton 4-6 Chipchura
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Chipchura
2
4
Thornton
Chipchura
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Chipchura
1
5
Thornton
Chipchura
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Thornton
5
3
Thornton
Chipchura
8 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Thornton
Chipchura
Edge
Even Strength
53.5% (6,640)
50.9% (2,100)
+2.6%
Power Play
57.2% (1,387)
45.7% (46)
+11.5%
Penalty Kill
56.7% (427)
45.0% (171)
+11.7%
On penalty kill, Thornton has a +11.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Chipchura shoots left. Thornton is 54.3% vs left-shot opponents (5,220).
Thornton shoots left. Chipchura is 52.2% vs left-shot opponents (1,553).
Home / Away
Thornton
Chipchura
Home
55.8% (4,271)
50.7% (1,143)
Away
52.8% (4,219)
49.9% (1,179)
By Period
Thornton
Chipchura
P1
55.0%
51.1%
P2
53.3%
50.3%
P3
54.4%
48.9%
OT
56.4%
78.6%
Final 5 min
53.7%
50.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Thornton
44.0%▼
46.5%
54.3%
Chipchura
56.0%▲
54.0%
50.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 4, 2015 | 1 | 15:39 | Defensive | Kyle Chipchura |
| Apr 3, 2015 | 3 | 18:34 | Neutral | Joe Thornton |
| Feb 13, 2015 | 2 | 09:29 | Defensive | Joe Thornton |
| Jan 13, 2015 | 3 | 09:17 | Offensive | Kyle Chipchura |
| Jan 13, 2015 | 3 | 06:22 | Neutral | Kyle Chipchura |
| Jan 13, 2015 | 2 | 11:50 | Neutral | Joe Thornton |
| Jan 13, 2015 | 2 | 08:18 | Defensive | Kyle Chipchura |
| Jan 13, 2015 | 1 | 14:19 | Neutral | Joe Thornton |
| Jan 13, 2015 | 1 | 00:35 | Offensive | Kyle Chipchura |
| Nov 22, 2014 | 1 | 17:03 | Defensive | Kyle Chipchura |
| Oct 5, 2013 | 2 | 14:22 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |
| Oct 5, 2013 | 1 | 16:31 | Neutral | Joe Thornton |
| Oct 5, 2013 | 1 | 16:21 | Offensive | Kyle Chipchura |
| Apr 24, 2013 | 1 | 14:02 | Offensive | Kyle Chipchura |
| Jan 24, 2013 | 3 | 13:06 | Neutral | Joe Thornton |
| Jan 24, 2013 | 1 | 03:22 | Defensive | Kyle Chipchura |
| Nov 12, 2011 | 1 | 16:32 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |
| Nov 12, 2011 | 1 | 02:47 | Defensive | Kyle Chipchura |
| Oct 30, 2010 | 1 | 02:23 | Neutral | Kyle Chipchura |
| Oct 30, 2010 | 1 | 00:21 | Neutral | Kyle Chipchura |