Scouting Report
Joe Thornton holds a +4.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Wallmark on offensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). Thornton wins 54.3% vs left-shot opponents — Wallmark shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Thornton 54.3% vs Wallmark 50.2% (+4.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Wallmark 64.6%
Defensive zone
Wallmark 79.7%
Neutral zone
Wallmark 71.5%
Result
Lucas Wallmark favored at 68.2%
31.8%
68.2%
Thornton
Wallmark
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
6
(8 meetings)
2
6
Thornton
Wallmark
Last 8: Thornton 2-6 Wallmark
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Wallmark
1
4
Thornton
Wallmark
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Wallmark
0
1
Thornton
Wallmark
1 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Thornton
Wallmark
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Thornton
Wallmark
Edge
Even Strength
53.5% (6,640)
50.5% (1,852)
+3.0%
Power Play
57.2% (1,387)
56.3% (103)
+0.9%
Penalty Kill
56.7% (427)
44.9% (216)
+11.8%
On penalty kill, Thornton has a +11.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Wallmark shoots left. Thornton is 54.3% vs left-shot opponents (5,220).
Thornton shoots left. Wallmark is 50.5% vs left-shot opponents (1,391).
Home / Away
Thornton
Wallmark
Home
55.8% (4,271)
50.8% (1,070)
Away
52.8% (4,219)
49.6% (1,101)
By Period
Thornton
Wallmark
P1
55.0%
51.4%
P2
53.3%
50.8%
P3
54.4%
48.7%
OT
56.4%
0.0%
Final 5 min
53.7%
50.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Thornton
44.0%▼
46.5%
54.3%
Wallmark
44.0%▬
44.5%
50.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 5, 2019 | 2 | 11:52 | Offensive | Lucas Wallmark |
| Dec 5, 2019 | 2 | 09:30 | Offensive | Lucas Wallmark |
| Dec 5, 2019 | 2 | 01:26 | Offensive | Lucas Wallmark |
| Oct 16, 2019 | 3 | 02:26 | Offensive | Lucas Wallmark |
| Oct 16, 2019 | 2 | 18:55 | Neutral | Joe Thornton |
| Oct 16, 2019 | 2 | 14:37 | Neutral | Lucas Wallmark |
| Oct 16, 2019 | 1 | 14:36 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |
| Dec 5, 2018 | 3 | 11:56 | Defensive | Lucas Wallmark |