Scouting Report
Joe Thornton holds a +4.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Zibanejad on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 9 meetings). Thornton wins 54.4% vs right-shot opponents — Zibanejad shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Thornton 54.3% vs Zibanejad 49.9% (+4.4%)
H2H factor
Zibanejad leads 16-16 in 32 meetings
Offensive zone
Zibanejad 55.0%
Defensive zone
Zibanejad 64.3%
Neutral zone
Zibanejad 60.5%
Result
Mika Zibanejad favored at 59.3%
40.7%
59.3%
Thornton
Zibanejad
Head-to-Head Record
16
-
16
(32 meetings)
16
16
Thornton
Zibanejad
Last 10: Thornton 4-6 Zibanejad
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Thornton
7
6
Thornton
Zibanejad
13 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Zibanejad
3
6
Thornton
Zibanejad
9 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Thornton
6
4
Thornton
Zibanejad
10 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Thornton
Zibanejad
Edge
Even Strength
53.5% (6,640)
50.9% (11,719)
+2.6%
Power Play
57.2% (1,387)
52.2% (1,849)
+5.0%
Penalty Kill
56.7% (427)
41.5% (1,790)
+15.2%
On penalty kill, Thornton has a +15.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Zibanejad shoots right. Thornton is 54.4% vs right-shot opponents (3,270).
Thornton shoots left. Zibanejad is 50.1% vs left-shot opponents (10,678).
Home / Away
Thornton
Zibanejad
Home
55.8% (4,271)
51.6% (7,566)
Away
52.8% (4,219)
48.3% (7,793)
By Period
Thornton
Zibanejad
P1
55.0%
50.4%
P2
53.3%
49.7%
P3
54.4%
49.8%
OT
56.4%
48.7%
Final 5 min
53.7%
48.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Thornton
44.0%▼
46.5%
54.3%
Zibanejad
50.0%▼
51.5%
49.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 22, 2020 | 3 | 08:09 | Defensive | Joe Thornton |
| Feb 22, 2020 | 3 | 08:03 | Offensive | Mika Zibanejad |
| Feb 22, 2020 | 1 | 10:49 | Neutral | Joe Thornton |
| Feb 22, 2020 | 1 | 07:49 | Neutral | Joe Thornton |
| Feb 22, 2020 | 1 | 07:37 | Offensive | Mika Zibanejad |
| Oct 30, 2018 | 2 | 06:14 | Defensive | Mika Zibanejad |
| Oct 23, 2017 | 2 | 18:35 | Neutral | Joe Thornton |
| Oct 23, 2017 | 1 | 15:07 | Defensive | Mika Zibanejad |
| Mar 28, 2017 | 1 | 15:00 | Defensive | Mika Zibanejad |
| Mar 28, 2017 | 1 | 13:55 | Defensive | Mika Zibanejad |
| Oct 17, 2016 | 3 | 18:24 | Neutral | Mika Zibanejad |
| Oct 17, 2016 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Joe Thornton |
| Oct 17, 2016 | 2 | 05:13 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |
| Oct 17, 2016 | 2 | 04:58 | Offensive | Mika Zibanejad |
| Oct 17, 2016 | 1 | 14:43 | Offensive | Mika Zibanejad |
| Oct 17, 2016 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mika Zibanejad |
| Jan 18, 2016 | 3 | 02:47 | Neutral | Joe Thornton |
| Jan 18, 2016 | 2 | 10:21 | Defensive | Mika Zibanejad |
| Jan 18, 2016 | 2 | 00:54 | Defensive | Joe Thornton |
| Jan 18, 2016 | 1 | 10:10 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |