Scouting Report
Joe Thornton holds a +2.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Thornton on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Thornton wins 53.2% vs left-shot opponents — Backlund shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Thornton 51.7% vs Backlund 50.0% (+2.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Thornton 73.8%
Defensive zone
Backlund 73.9%
Neutral zone
Thornton 52.0%
Result
Joe Thornton favored at 56.9%
56.9%
43.1%
Thornton
Backlund
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
2
(8 meetings)
6
2
Thornton
Backlund
Last 8: Thornton 6-2 Backlund
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Thornton
2
1
Thornton
Backlund
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Thornton
1
0
Thornton
Backlund
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Thornton
3
1
Thornton
Backlund
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Thornton
Backlund
Edge
Even Strength
52.7% (372)
51.1% (1,070)
+1.6%
Power Play
47.6% (63)
50.5% (91)
-2.9%
Penalty Kill
60.0% (5)
45.2% (248)
+14.8%
On penalty kill, Thornton has a +14.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Backlund shoots left. Thornton is 53.2% vs left-shot opponents (252).
Thornton shoots left. Backlund is 47.3% vs left-shot opponents (844).
Home / Away
Thornton
Backlund
Home
51.2% (250)
49.3% (702)
Away
53.2% (190)
50.7% (708)
By Period
Thornton
Backlund
P1
56.1%
46.3%
P2
52.8%
53.8%
P3
47.4%
49.9%
OT
57.1%
45.0%
Final 5 min
50.0%
51.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Thornton
44.0%▼
46.5%
52.0%
Backlund
52.0%▲
48.0%
50.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 28, 2017 | 2 | 16:30 | Neutral | Joe Thornton |
| Dec 28, 2017 | 1 | 06:22 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |
| Dec 28, 2017 | 1 | 03:21 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |
| Dec 14, 2017 | 3 | 17:12 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Dec 14, 2017 | 2 | 10:33 | Neutral | Joe Thornton |
| Dec 14, 2017 | 2 | 06:31 | Defensive | Joe Thornton |
| Dec 14, 2017 | 2 | 06:17 | Offensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Dec 14, 2017 | 1 | 16:07 | Neutral | Joe Thornton |