Scouting Report
Joe Thornton holds a +1.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Dowd on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Thornton 51.7% vs Dowd 50.8% (+1.0%)
H2H factor
Dowd leads 6-5 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Thornton 79.6%
Defensive zone
Dowd 82.7%
Neutral zone
Thornton 57.4%
Result
Nic Dowd favored at 56.8%
43.2%
56.8%
Thornton
Dowd
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
6
(11 meetings)
5
6
Thornton
Dowd
Last 10: Thornton 5-5 Dowd
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Thornton
2
0
Thornton
Dowd
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
2
3
Thornton
Dowd
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Dowd
1
3
Thornton
Dowd
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Thornton
Dowd
Edge
Even Strength
52.7% (372)
51.6% (343)
+1.1%
Power Play
47.6% (63)
50.0% (2)
-2.4%
Penalty Kill
60.0% (5)
47.1% (51)
+12.9%
On penalty kill, Thornton has a +12.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dowd shoots right. Thornton is 50.5% vs right-shot opponents (188).
Thornton shoots left. Dowd is 49.8% vs left-shot opponents (267).
Home / Away
Thornton
Dowd
Home
51.2% (250)
43.0% (172)
Away
53.2% (190)
57.1% (224)
By Period
Thornton
Dowd
P1
56.1%
47.4%
P2
52.8%
60.6%
P3
47.4%
44.7%
OT
57.1%
33.3%
Final 5 min
50.0%
50.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Thornton
44.0%▼
46.5%
52.0%
Dowd
50.0%▲
48.0%
51.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 21, 2017 | 3 | 17:46 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 21, 2017 | 3 | 15:38 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 21, 2017 | 3 | 09:17 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |
| Dec 21, 2017 | 3 | 02:09 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 21, 2017 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Joe Thornton |
| Dec 21, 2017 | 2 | 00:27 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |
| Dec 15, 2017 | 3 | 11:17 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 15, 2017 | 3 | 04:23 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 15, 2017 | 2 | 19:03 | Defensive | Joe Thornton |
| Dec 15, 2017 | 2 | 09:52 | Defensive | Joe Thornton |
| Dec 15, 2017 | 2 | 02:02 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |