Scouting Report
Joe Thornton holds a +5.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Thornton on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 12 meetings). Thornton wins 54.4% vs right-shot opponents — Bjugstad shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Thornton 54.3% vs Bjugstad 48.9% (+5.4%)
H2H factor
Thornton leads 21-13 in 34 meetings
Offensive zone
Thornton 88.9%
Defensive zone
Thornton 67.5%
Neutral zone
Thornton 85.7%
Result
Joe Thornton favored at 81.5%
81.5%
18.5%
Thornton
Bjugstad
Head-to-Head Record
21
-
13
(34 meetings)
21
13
Thornton
Bjugstad
Last 10: Thornton 4-6 Bjugstad
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Thornton
8
4
Thornton
Bjugstad
12 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Thornton
6
4
Thornton
Bjugstad
10 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Thornton
7
5
Thornton
Bjugstad
12 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Thornton
Bjugstad
Edge
Even Strength
53.5% (6,640)
48.6% (6,634)
+4.9%
Power Play
57.2% (1,387)
55.2% (829)
+2.0%
Penalty Kill
56.7% (427)
44.3% (614)
+12.4%
On penalty kill, Thornton has a +12.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Bjugstad shoots right. Thornton is 54.4% vs right-shot opponents (3,270).
Thornton shoots left. Bjugstad is 50.4% vs left-shot opponents (5,747).
Home / Away
Thornton
Bjugstad
Home
55.8% (4,271)
49.8% (4,020)
Away
52.8% (4,219)
48.1% (4,057)
By Period
Thornton
Bjugstad
P1
55.0%
49.0%
P2
53.3%
49.1%
P3
54.4%
48.4%
OT
56.4%
61.3%
Final 5 min
53.7%
47.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Thornton
44.0%▼
46.5%
54.3%
Bjugstad
40.0%▼
48.0%
48.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 21, 2019 | 3 | 08:24 | Offensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Dec 1, 2017 | 3 | 17:12 | Defensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Dec 1, 2017 | 2 | 19:04 | Neutral | Joe Thornton |
| Nov 16, 2017 | 2 | 17:46 | Neutral | Nick Bjugstad |
| Nov 16, 2017 | 2 | 04:24 | Defensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Nov 5, 2015 | 2 | 13:23 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |
| Nov 20, 2014 | OT | 03:46 | Defensive | Joe Thornton |
| Nov 20, 2014 | OT | 03:41 | Offensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Nov 20, 2014 | OT | 01:42 | Offensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Nov 20, 2014 | 3 | 19:49 | Defensive | Joe Thornton |
| Nov 20, 2014 | 3 | 05:09 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |
| Nov 20, 2014 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Joe Thornton |
| Nov 20, 2014 | 2 | 12:50 | Defensive | Joe Thornton |
| Nov 20, 2014 | 2 | 02:41 | Defensive | Joe Thornton |
| Nov 20, 2014 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Joe Thornton |
| Nov 20, 2014 | 1 | 10:06 | Neutral | Joe Thornton |
| Nov 20, 2014 | 1 | 09:51 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |
| Nov 20, 2014 | 1 | 09:34 | Neutral | Joe Thornton |
| Nov 20, 2014 | 1 | 06:23 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |
| Nov 20, 2014 | 1 | 06:15 | Defensive | Nick Bjugstad |