Scouting Report
Joe Thornton holds a +9.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Thornton on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 8 meetings). Thornton wins 56.4% vs right-shot opponents — Bjugstad shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Thornton 57.3% vs Bjugstad 49.0% (+9.1%)
H2H factor
Thornton leads 17-5 in 22 meetings
Offensive zone
Thornton 83.4%
Defensive zone
Thornton 93.0%
Neutral zone
Thornton 91.5%
Result
Joe Thornton favored at 89.1%
89.1%
10.9%
Thornton
Bjugstad
Head-to-Head Record
17
-
5
(22 meetings)
17
5
Thornton
Bjugstad
Last 10: Thornton 8-2 Bjugstad
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Thornton
6
2
Thornton
Bjugstad
8 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Thornton
6
2
Thornton
Bjugstad
8 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Thornton
5
1
Thornton
Bjugstad
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Thornton
Bjugstad
Edge
Even Strength
58.7% (722)
47.3% (806)
+11.4%
Power Play
58.5% (147)
55.0% (149)
+3.5%
Penalty Kill
51.2% (86)
59.0% (39)
-7.8%
On even strength, Thornton has a +11.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Bjugstad shoots right. Thornton is 56.4% vs right-shot opponents (427).
Thornton shoots left. Bjugstad is 51.8% vs left-shot opponents (693).
Home / Away
Thornton
Bjugstad
Home
60.1% (496)
55.4% (446)
Away
55.8% (459)
43.6% (548)
By Period
Thornton
Bjugstad
P1
60.4%
49.4%
P2
54.7%
48.1%
P3
58.2%
48.6%
OT
61.5%
61.1%
Final 5 min
55.5%
48.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Thornton
44.0%▼
46.5%
58.0%
Bjugstad
40.0%▼
48.0%
48.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 20, 2014 | OT | 03:46 | Defensive | Joe Thornton |
| Nov 20, 2014 | OT | 03:41 | Offensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Nov 20, 2014 | OT | 01:42 | Offensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Nov 20, 2014 | 3 | 19:49 | Defensive | Joe Thornton |
| Nov 20, 2014 | 3 | 05:09 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |
| Nov 20, 2014 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Joe Thornton |
| Nov 20, 2014 | 2 | 12:50 | Defensive | Joe Thornton |
| Nov 20, 2014 | 2 | 02:41 | Defensive | Joe Thornton |
| Nov 20, 2014 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Joe Thornton |
| Nov 20, 2014 | 1 | 10:06 | Neutral | Joe Thornton |
| Nov 20, 2014 | 1 | 09:51 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |
| Nov 20, 2014 | 1 | 09:34 | Neutral | Joe Thornton |
| Nov 20, 2014 | 1 | 06:23 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |
| Nov 20, 2014 | 1 | 06:15 | Defensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Nov 20, 2014 | 1 | 03:01 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |
| Nov 20, 2014 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Joe Thornton |
| Nov 11, 2014 | 3 | 13:34 | Defensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Nov 11, 2014 | 3 | 04:07 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |
| Nov 11, 2014 | 2 | 11:16 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |
| Nov 11, 2014 | 1 | 12:25 | Defensive | Joe Thornton |