Scouting Report
Joe Thornton holds a +11.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Thornton on offensive-zone draws (70% H2H, 10 meetings). Thornton wins 54.3% vs left-shot opponents — Elias shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Thornton 54.3% vs Elias 42.7% (+11.8%)
H2H factor
Thornton leads 16-13 in 29 meetings
Offensive zone
Thornton 75.1%
Defensive zone
Thornton 67.4%
Neutral zone
Thornton 74.1%
Result
Joe Thornton favored at 72.6%
72.6%
27.4%
Thornton
Elias
Head-to-Head Record
16
-
13
(29 meetings)
16
13
Thornton
Elias
Last 10: Thornton 5-5 Elias
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Thornton
7
3
Thornton
Elias
10 total
Defensive Zone
Even
4
4
Thornton
Elias
8 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Elias
5
6
Thornton
Elias
11 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Thornton
Elias
Edge
Even Strength
53.5% (6,640)
42.3% (2,591)
+11.2%
Power Play
57.2% (1,387)
48.4% (405)
+8.8%
Penalty Kill
56.7% (427)
36.0% (367)
+20.7%
On penalty kill, Thornton has a +20.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Elias shoots left. Thornton is 54.3% vs left-shot opponents (5,220).
Thornton shoots left. Elias is 42.9% vs left-shot opponents (2,229).
Home / Away
Thornton
Elias
Home
55.8% (4,271)
43.2% (1,683)
Away
52.8% (4,219)
41.7% (1,725)
By Period
Thornton
Elias
P1
55.0%
41.1%
P2
53.3%
43.1%
P3
54.4%
43.0%
OT
56.4%
43.2%
Final 5 min
53.7%
40.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Thornton
44.0%▼
46.5%
54.3%
Elias
40.0%▲
37.5%
42.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 19, 2015 | 2 | 04:28 | Defensive | Joe Thornton |
| Oct 18, 2014 | 2 | 11:36 | Offensive | Patrik Elias |
| Oct 21, 2011 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Joe Thornton |
| Oct 21, 2011 | 3 | 14:07 | Neutral | Joe Thornton |
| Oct 21, 2011 | 3 | 12:17 | Offensive | Patrik Elias |
| Oct 21, 2011 | 3 | 12:03 | Defensive | Patrik Elias |
| Oct 21, 2011 | 3 | 07:50 | Defensive | Joe Thornton |
| Oct 21, 2011 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Patrik Elias |
| Oct 21, 2011 | 2 | 18:11 | Neutral | Joe Thornton |
| Oct 21, 2011 | 2 | 13:24 | Defensive | Patrik Elias |
| Oct 21, 2011 | 2 | 11:41 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |
| Oct 21, 2011 | 2 | 09:55 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |
| Oct 21, 2011 | 2 | 02:06 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |
| Oct 21, 2011 | 2 | 02:15 | Neutral | Joe Thornton |
| Oct 21, 2011 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Joe Thornton |
| Oct 21, 2011 | 1 | 19:29 | Defensive | Patrik Elias |
| Oct 21, 2011 | 1 | 14:52 | Neutral | Patrik Elias |
| Oct 21, 2011 | 1 | 12:49 | Defensive | Joe Thornton |
| Oct 21, 2011 | 1 | 07:21 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |
| Oct 21, 2011 | 1 | 03:27 | Defensive | Joe Thornton |