Scouting Report
Joe Thornton holds a +9.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Elias on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Thornton wins 54.4% vs left-shot opponents — Elias shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Thornton 54.1% vs Elias 45.8% (+9.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Elias 60.1%
Defensive zone
Elias 66.7%
Neutral zone
Elias 67.2%
Result
Patrik Elias favored at 63.6%
36.4%
63.6%
Thornton
Elias
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
5
(8 meetings)
3
5
Thornton
Elias
Last 8: Thornton 3-5 Elias
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Thornton
3
1
Thornton
Elias
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Elias
0
1
Thornton
Elias
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Elias
0
3
Thornton
Elias
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Thornton
Elias
Edge
Even Strength
52.8% (922)
44.5% (407)
+8.3%
Power Play
56.1% (196)
47.8% (23)
+8.3%
Penalty Kill
62.0% (100)
46.8% (62)
+15.2%
On penalty kill, Thornton has a +15.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Elias shoots left. Thornton is 54.4% vs left-shot opponents (913).
Thornton shoots left. Elias is 43.9% vs left-shot opponents (335).
Home / Away
Thornton
Elias
Home
54.9% (597)
44.8% (252)
Away
54.0% (643)
45.1% (246)
By Period
Thornton
Elias
P1
53.0%
43.0%
P2
51.2%
47.8%
P3
57.8%
43.4%
OT
72.7%
66.7%
Final 5 min
59.0%
44.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Thornton
44.0%▼
46.5%
54.4%
Elias
40.0%▲
37.5%
45.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 11, 2011 | 3 | 01:40 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |
| Feb 11, 2011 | 2 | 18:30 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |
| Feb 11, 2011 | 2 | 11:41 | Defensive | Patrik Elias |
| Feb 11, 2011 | 2 | 11:22 | Offensive | Patrik Elias |
| Feb 11, 2011 | 2 | 07:58 | Neutral | Patrik Elias |
| Feb 11, 2011 | 2 | 00:47 | Neutral | Patrik Elias |
| Feb 11, 2011 | 1 | 18:07 | Neutral | Patrik Elias |
| Feb 11, 2011 | 1 | 06:26 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |