Scouting Report
Joe Thornton holds a +6.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Thornton on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Thornton wins 46.9% vs left-shot opponents — Zacha shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Thornton 49.5% vs Zacha 44.2% (+6.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Thornton 80.6%
Defensive zone
Thornton 53.7%
Neutral zone
Thornton 80.7%
Result
Joe Thornton favored at 80.7%
80.7%
19.3%
Thornton
Zacha
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
2
(6 meetings)
4
2
Thornton
Zacha
Last 6: Thornton 4-2 Zacha
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Thornton
4
0
Thornton
Zacha
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Zacha
0
2
Thornton
Zacha
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Thornton
Zacha
Edge
Even Strength
48.9% (583)
42.8% (514)
+6.1%
Power Play
52.5% (59)
51.9% (79)
+0.6%
Penalty Kill
58.3% (12)
36.1% (61)
+22.2%
On penalty kill, Thornton has a +22.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Zacha shoots left. Thornton is 46.9% vs left-shot opponents (407).
Thornton shoots left. Zacha is 40.6% vs left-shot opponents (387).
Home / Away
Thornton
Zacha
Home
51.6% (341)
45.0% (289)
Away
47.0% (313)
41.9% (365)
By Period
Thornton
Zacha
P1
53.9%
47.4%
P2
46.9%
43.8%
P3
47.0%
37.7%
Final 5 min
52.0%
39.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Thornton
44.0%▼
46.5%
49.4%
Zacha
46.0%▼
50.5%
43.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 27, 2020 | 2 | 11:50 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |
| Feb 27, 2020 | 2 | 06:18 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |
| Feb 27, 2020 | 2 | 06:11 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |
| Feb 27, 2020 | 1 | 07:52 | Neutral | Pavel Zacha |
| Feb 20, 2020 | 3 | 15:54 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |
| Feb 20, 2020 | 1 | 12:46 | Neutral | Pavel Zacha |