Scouting Report
Joe Thornton holds a +5.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Thornton on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Thornton wins 54.4% vs right-shot opponents — Carpenter shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Thornton 54.3% vs Carpenter 48.5% (+5.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Thornton 76.9%
Defensive zone
Carpenter 75.3%
Neutral zone
Carpenter 55.9%
Result
Ryan Carpenter favored at 55.0%
45.0%
55.0%
Thornton
Carpenter
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
4
(8 meetings)
4
4
Thornton
Carpenter
Last 8: Thornton 4-4 Carpenter
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Thornton
Carpenter
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Thornton
2
1
Thornton
Carpenter
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Carpenter
1
2
Thornton
Carpenter
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Thornton
Carpenter
Edge
Even Strength
53.5% (6,640)
49.6% (2,027)
+3.9%
Power Play
57.2% (1,387)
41.5% (41)
+15.7%
Penalty Kill
56.7% (427)
43.9% (467)
+12.8%
On power play, Thornton has a +15.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carpenter shoots right. Thornton is 54.4% vs right-shot opponents (3,270).
Thornton shoots left. Carpenter is 46.8% vs left-shot opponents (1,840).
Home / Away
Thornton
Carpenter
Home
55.8% (4,271)
51.2% (1,290)
Away
52.8% (4,219)
45.5% (1,245)
By Period
Thornton
Carpenter
P1
55.0%
49.6%
P2
53.3%
47.7%
P3
54.4%
48.0%
OT
56.4%
55.6%
Final 5 min
53.7%
49.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Thornton
44.0%▼
46.5%
54.3%
Carpenter
48.0%▬
47.0%
48.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 11, 2020 | 1 | 13:32 | Defensive | Joe Thornton |
| Nov 5, 2019 | 3 | 02:19 | Neutral | Joe Thornton |
| Nov 5, 2019 | 1 | 12:31 | Neutral | Ryan Carpenter |
| Nov 5, 2019 | 1 | 07:09 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |
| Oct 10, 2019 | 3 | 01:02 | Defensive | Joe Thornton |
| Oct 10, 2019 | 1 | 14:43 | Defensive | Ryan Carpenter |
| Jan 10, 2019 | 1 | 09:59 | Offensive | Ryan Carpenter |
| Nov 24, 2018 | 3 | 05:58 | Neutral | Ryan Carpenter |