Scouting Report
Ryan Kesler holds a +1.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Kesler on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 52 meetings). Thornton wins 54.4% vs right-shot opponents — Kesler shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Thornton 54.3% vs Kesler 55.9% (-1.7%)
H2H factor
Kesler leads 79-75 in 154 meetings
Offensive zone
Thornton 65.9%
Defensive zone
Kesler 66.8%
Neutral zone
Kesler 50.3%
Result
Joe Thornton favored at 50.6%
50.6%
49.4%
Thornton
Kesler
Head-to-Head Record
75
-
79
(154 meetings)
75
79
Thornton
Kesler
Last 10: Thornton 7-3 Kesler
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Thornton
37
25
Thornton
Kesler
62 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kesler
13
39
Thornton
Kesler
52 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Thornton
25
15
Thornton
Kesler
40 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Thornton
Kesler
Edge
Even Strength
53.5% (6,640)
56.4% (8,095)
-2.9%
Power Play
57.2% (1,387)
60.7% (1,437)
-3.5%
Penalty Kill
56.7% (427)
50.5% (1,908)
+6.2%
On penalty kill, Thornton has a +6.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kesler shoots right. Thornton is 54.4% vs right-shot opponents (3,270).
Thornton shoots left. Kesler is 56.1% vs left-shot opponents (7,986).
Home / Away
Thornton
Kesler
Home
55.8% (4,271)
57.2% (5,732)
Away
52.8% (4,219)
54.7% (5,751)
By Period
Thornton
Kesler
P1
55.0%
56.5%
P2
53.3%
55.9%
P3
54.4%
56.1%
OT
56.4%
46.0%
Final 5 min
53.7%
56.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Thornton
44.0%▼
46.5%
54.3%
Kesler
50.0%▼
54.5%
56.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 27, 2018 | 1 | 16:58 | Defensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Dec 27, 2018 | 1 | 10:33 | Neutral | Joe Thornton |
| Mar 18, 2017 | 3 | 16:25 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |
| Mar 18, 2017 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Joe Thornton |
| Mar 18, 2017 | 2 | 02:19 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |
| Mar 18, 2017 | 1 | 17:53 | Defensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Mar 18, 2017 | 1 | 16:01 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |
| Mar 18, 2017 | 1 | 10:15 | Defensive | Joe Thornton |
| Mar 18, 2017 | 1 | 06:30 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |
| Dec 27, 2016 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan Kesler |
| Dec 27, 2016 | 3 | 18:30 | Neutral | Joe Thornton |
| Dec 27, 2016 | 3 | 07:51 | Defensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Dec 27, 2016 | 2 | 15:04 | Neutral | Joe Thornton |
| Dec 27, 2016 | 2 | 08:22 | Neutral | Ryan Kesler |
| Dec 27, 2016 | 2 | 00:35 | Neutral | Joe Thornton |
| Dec 27, 2016 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan Kesler |
| Dec 27, 2016 | 1 | 19:54 | Defensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Dec 27, 2016 | 1 | 19:18 | Neutral | Joe Thornton |
| Dec 27, 2016 | 1 | 07:25 | Defensive | Joe Thornton |
| Dec 27, 2016 | 1 | 04:52 | Offensive | Ryan Kesler |