Scouting Report
Joe Thornton holds a +2.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Kesler on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Thornton wins 53.9% vs right-shot opponents — Kesler shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Thornton 55.5% vs Kesler 53.3% (+2.5%)
H2H factor
Kesler leads 13-8 in 21 meetings
Offensive zone
Kesler 60.6%
Defensive zone
Kesler 62.9%
Neutral zone
Kesler 63.6%
Result
Ryan Kesler favored at 62.2%
37.8%
62.2%
Thornton
Kesler
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
13
(21 meetings)
8
13
Thornton
Kesler
Last 10: Thornton 4-6 Kesler
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Kesler
4
5
Thornton
Kesler
9 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kesler
1
3
Thornton
Kesler
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kesler
3
5
Thornton
Kesler
8 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Thornton
Kesler
Edge
Even Strength
55.8% (704)
53.8% (981)
+2.0%
Power Play
56.7% (208)
56.9% (160)
-0.2%
Penalty Kill
56.7% (67)
49.2% (185)
+7.5%
On penalty kill, Thornton has a +7.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kesler shoots right. Thornton is 53.9% vs right-shot opponents (388).
Thornton shoots left. Kesler is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (959).
Home / Away
Thornton
Kesler
Home
59.0% (493)
54.1% (690)
Away
53.2% (500)
53.1% (661)
By Period
Thornton
Kesler
P1
55.3%
52.3%
P2
55.4%
52.8%
P3
57.1%
56.3%
OT
59.3%
44.1%
Final 5 min
54.7%
58.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Thornton
44.0%▼
46.5%
56.1%
Kesler
50.0%▼
54.5%
53.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 21, 2012 | 3 | 15:55 | Neutral | Ryan Kesler |
| Jan 21, 2012 | 3 | 15:43 | Neutral | Ryan Kesler |
| Jan 21, 2012 | 3 | 14:11 | Neutral | Joe Thornton |
| Jan 21, 2012 | 3 | 00:34 | Defensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Jan 21, 2012 | 2 | 19:53 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |
| Jan 21, 2012 | 1 | 19:43 | Defensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Jan 21, 2012 | 1 | 17:48 | Offensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Jan 21, 2012 | 1 | 12:03 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |
| Jan 21, 2012 | 1 | 09:43 | Offensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Jan 21, 2012 | 1 | 06:35 | Neutral | Joe Thornton |
| Jan 21, 2012 | 1 | 03:14 | Defensive | Joe Thornton |
| Jan 2, 2012 | 3 | 18:21 | Neutral | Ryan Kesler |
| Jan 2, 2012 | 3 | 14:12 | Offensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Jan 2, 2012 | 3 | 08:38 | Offensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Jan 2, 2012 | 3 | 01:04 | Neutral | Ryan Kesler |
| Jan 2, 2012 | 2 | 18:26 | Neutral | Ryan Kesler |
| Dec 28, 2011 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Joe Thornton |
| Dec 28, 2011 | 3 | 18:23 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |
| Nov 26, 2011 | 2 | 16:16 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |
| Nov 26, 2011 | 2 | 12:20 | Offensive | Ryan Kesler |