Scouting Report
Joe Thornton holds a +2.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Thornton on offensive-zone draws (82% H2H, 27 meetings). Thornton wins 54.3% vs left-shot opponents — Koivu shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Thornton 54.3% vs Koivu 51.8% (+2.5%)
H2H factor
Thornton leads 43-27 in 70 meetings
Offensive zone
Thornton 84.6%
Defensive zone
Koivu 59.5%
Neutral zone
Thornton 65.9%
Result
Joe Thornton favored at 62.9%
62.9%
37.1%
Thornton
Koivu
Head-to-Head Record
43
-
27
(70 meetings)
43
27
Thornton
Koivu
Last 10: Thornton 5-5 Koivu
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Thornton
22
5
Thornton
Koivu
27 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Koivu
12
16
Thornton
Koivu
28 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Thornton
9
6
Thornton
Koivu
15 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Thornton
Koivu
Edge
Even Strength
53.5% (6,640)
51.9% (3,221)
+1.6%
Power Play
57.2% (1,387)
59.3% (437)
-2.1%
Penalty Kill
56.7% (427)
48.0% (764)
+8.7%
On penalty kill, Thornton has a +8.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Koivu shoots left. Thornton is 54.3% vs left-shot opponents (5,220).
Thornton shoots left. Koivu is 51.8% vs left-shot opponents (3,153).
Home / Away
Thornton
Koivu
Home
55.8% (4,271)
53.5% (2,281)
Away
52.8% (4,219)
50.1% (2,209)
By Period
Thornton
Koivu
P1
55.0%
51.1%
P2
53.3%
52.6%
P3
54.4%
51.8%
OT
56.4%
52.3%
Final 5 min
53.7%
55.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Thornton
44.0%▼
46.5%
54.3%
Koivu
46.0%▼
50.0%
51.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 9, 2014 | 3 | 14:59 | Neutral | Joe Thornton |
| Apr 9, 2014 | 2 | 07:23 | Neutral | Joe Thornton |
| Apr 9, 2014 | 2 | 07:30 | Offensive | Saku Koivu |
| Dec 31, 2013 | 2 | 08:30 | Offensive | Saku Koivu |
| Dec 31, 2013 | 1 | 03:59 | Offensive | Saku Koivu |
| Dec 29, 2013 | 3 | 19:54 | Defensive | Joe Thornton |
| Dec 29, 2013 | 2 | 12:05 | Defensive | Joe Thornton |
| Dec 29, 2013 | 2 | 11:56 | Offensive | Saku Koivu |
| Dec 29, 2013 | 2 | 11:39 | Defensive | Joe Thornton |
| Nov 30, 2013 | OT | 04:13 | Defensive | Saku Koivu |
| Nov 30, 2013 | 3 | 17:36 | Defensive | Joe Thornton |
| Nov 30, 2013 | 2 | 16:39 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |
| Nov 30, 2013 | 2 | 12:21 | Defensive | Joe Thornton |
| Nov 30, 2013 | 2 | 04:27 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |
| Nov 30, 2013 | 1 | 19:12 | Defensive | Joe Thornton |
| Mar 27, 2013 | 3 | 12:28 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |
| Mar 27, 2013 | 2 | 13:27 | Neutral | Joe Thornton |
| Mar 25, 2013 | 3 | 17:19 | Defensive | Joe Thornton |
| Mar 25, 2013 | 3 | 07:15 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |
| Mar 25, 2013 | 2 | 12:27 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |