Scouting Report
Joe Thornton holds a +3.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Thornton on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Thornton wins 57.5% vs left-shot opponents — Pahlsson shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Thornton 55.5% vs Pahlsson 52.4% (+3.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Thornton 89.8%
Defensive zone
Pahlsson 75.0%
Neutral zone
Thornton 55.2%
Result
Joe Thornton favored at 52.5%
52.5%
47.5%
Thornton
Pahlsson
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
2
(8 meetings)
6
2
Thornton
Pahlsson
Last 8: Thornton 6-2 Pahlsson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Thornton
2
0
Thornton
Pahlsson
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Pahlsson
1
2
Thornton
Pahlsson
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Thornton
3
0
Thornton
Pahlsson
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Thornton
Pahlsson
Edge
Even Strength
55.8% (704)
54.3% (782)
+1.5%
Power Play
56.7% (208)
62.5% (16)
-5.8%
Penalty Kill
56.7% (67)
45.8% (216)
+10.9%
On penalty kill, Thornton has a +10.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Pahlsson shoots left. Thornton is 57.5% vs left-shot opponents (605).
Thornton shoots left. Pahlsson is 52.2% vs left-shot opponents (686).
Home / Away
Thornton
Pahlsson
Home
59.0% (493)
51.8% (508)
Away
53.2% (500)
53.5% (518)
By Period
Thornton
Pahlsson
P1
55.3%
52.8%
P2
55.4%
52.1%
P3
57.1%
53.0%
OT
59.3%
53.8%
Final 5 min
54.7%
51.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Thornton
44.0%▼
46.5%
56.1%
Pahlsson
54.0%▼
59.0%
52.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 31, 2012 | 1 | 00:40 | Neutral | Joe Thornton |
| Jan 31, 2012 | 1 | 00:20 | Defensive | Samuel Pahlsson |
| Jan 14, 2012 | 3 | 11:38 | Defensive | Joe Thornton |
| Jan 14, 2012 | 2 | 10:34 | Defensive | Samuel Pahlsson |
| Jan 14, 2012 | 2 | 03:01 | Neutral | Joe Thornton |
| Jan 14, 2012 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Joe Thornton |
| Jan 5, 2012 | 3 | 13:46 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |
| Jan 5, 2012 | 1 | 03:21 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |