Scouting Report
Joe Thornton holds a +5.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Thornton on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Thornton wins 54.3% vs left-shot opponents — Smith shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Thornton 54.3% vs Smith 48.7% (+5.7%)
H2H factor
Smith leads 6-5 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Thornton 62.9%
Defensive zone
Smith 79.4%
Neutral zone
Smith 55.8%
Result
Trevor Smith favored at 57.6%
42.4%
57.6%
Thornton
Smith
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
6
(11 meetings)
5
6
Thornton
Smith
Last 10: Thornton 5-5 Smith
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Thornton
3
1
Thornton
Smith
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Smith
1
3
Thornton
Smith
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Smith
1
2
Thornton
Smith
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Thornton
Smith
Edge
Even Strength
53.5% (6,640)
49.0% (769)
+4.5%
Power Play
57.2% (1,387)
63.6% (22)
-6.4%
Penalty Kill
56.7% (427)
42.4% (118)
+14.3%
On penalty kill, Thornton has a +14.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Smith shoots left. Thornton is 54.3% vs left-shot opponents (5,220).
Thornton shoots left. Smith is 46.9% vs left-shot opponents (540).
Home / Away
Thornton
Smith
Home
55.8% (4,271)
52.4% (490)
Away
52.8% (4,219)
44.0% (420)
By Period
Thornton
Smith
P1
55.0%
46.9%
P2
53.3%
51.2%
P3
54.4%
47.7%
OT
56.4%
0.0%
Final 5 min
53.7%
53.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Thornton
44.0%▼
46.5%
54.3%
Smith
46.0%▼
52.0%
48.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 19, 2015 | 3 | 03:10 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |
| Mar 19, 2015 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Trevor Smith |
| Mar 19, 2015 | 1 | 13:16 | Defensive | Trevor Smith |
| Mar 19, 2015 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Trevor Smith |
| Jan 15, 2015 | 2 | 16:20 | Defensive | Joe Thornton |
| Dec 3, 2013 | 3 | 13:35 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |
| Dec 3, 2013 | 3 | 11:34 | Defensive | Trevor Smith |
| Dec 3, 2013 | 3 | 09:54 | Neutral | Joe Thornton |
| Dec 3, 2013 | 3 | 05:23 | Offensive | Trevor Smith |
| Dec 3, 2013 | 2 | 06:54 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |
| Dec 3, 2013 | 2 | 06:41 | Defensive | Trevor Smith |