Scouting Report
Joe Thornton holds a +11.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Thornton on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Thornton wins 53.3% vs left-shot opponents — Smith shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Thornton 55.6% vs Smith 46.1% (+11.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Smith 50.5%
Defensive zone
Smith 58.8%
Neutral zone
Thornton 58.7%
Result
Trevor Smith favored at 51.7%
48.3%
51.7%
Thornton
Smith
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
3
(6 meetings)
3
3
Thornton
Smith
Last 6: Thornton 3-3 Smith
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Thornton
2
1
Thornton
Smith
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Smith
0
2
Thornton
Smith
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Thornton
1
0
Thornton
Smith
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Thornton
Smith
Edge
Even Strength
55.1% (836)
44.7% (244)
+10.4%
Power Play
60.8% (181)
33.3% (6)
+27.5%
Penalty Kill
56.1% (82)
50.0% (8)
+6.1%
On power play, Thornton has a +27.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Smith shoots left. Thornton is 53.3% vs left-shot opponents (585).
Thornton shoots left. Smith is 43.5% vs left-shot opponents (138).
Home / Away
Thornton
Smith
Home
60.4% (528)
51.3% (158)
Away
52.2% (571)
34.0% (100)
By Period
Thornton
Smith
P1
58.1%
37.2%
P2
55.3%
53.9%
P3
55.0%
40.8%
OT
55.2%
0.0%
Final 5 min
54.1%
44.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Thornton
44.0%▼
46.5%
56.1%
Smith
46.0%▼
52.0%
44.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 3, 2013 | 3 | 13:35 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |
| Dec 3, 2013 | 3 | 11:34 | Defensive | Trevor Smith |
| Dec 3, 2013 | 3 | 09:54 | Neutral | Joe Thornton |
| Dec 3, 2013 | 3 | 05:23 | Offensive | Trevor Smith |
| Dec 3, 2013 | 2 | 06:54 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |
| Dec 3, 2013 | 2 | 06:41 | Defensive | Trevor Smith |