Scouting Report
Joe Thornton holds a +1.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Rask on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Thornton 50.8% vs Rask 49.8% (+1.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Rask 50.5%
Defensive zone
Thornton 52.7%
Neutral zone
Rask 50.7%
Result
Joe Thornton favored at 50.5%
50.5%
49.5%
Thornton
Rask
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
5
(6 meetings)
1
5
Thornton
Rask
Last 6: Thornton 1-5 Rask
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Rask
0
3
Thornton
Rask
3 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Thornton
Rask
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Rask
0
1
Thornton
Rask
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Thornton
Rask
Edge
Even Strength
49.8% (544)
48.7% (809)
+1.1%
Power Play
54.5% (178)
60.0% (90)
-5.5%
Penalty Kill
46.7% (15)
47.4% (19)
-0.7%
On power play, Rask has a +5.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Rask shoots left. Thornton is 51.7% vs left-shot opponents (414).
Thornton shoots left. Rask is 53.1% vs left-shot opponents (582).
Home / Away
Thornton
Rask
Home
54.9% (355)
51.4% (420)
Away
47.1% (382)
48.4% (498)
By Period
Thornton
Rask
P1
46.0%
49.1%
P2
52.5%
50.2%
P3
55.6%
50.3%
OT
33.3%
41.7%
Final 5 min
46.0%
47.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Thornton
44.0%▼
46.5%
50.9%
Rask
60.0%▲
49.5%
49.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 10, 2016 | 3 | 19:39 | Offensive | Victor Rask |
| Dec 10, 2016 | 3 | 19:27 | Defensive | Joe Thornton |
| Dec 10, 2016 | 3 | 19:25 | Offensive | Victor Rask |
| Dec 10, 2016 | 3 | 13:38 | Offensive | Victor Rask |
| Dec 10, 2016 | 1 | 11:24 | Defensive | Victor Rask |
| Dec 10, 2016 | 1 | 00:12 | Neutral | Victor Rask |