Scouting Report
Joe Vitale holds a +17.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Vitale on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Stepan wins 44.8% vs right-shot opponents — Vitale shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stepan 45.5% vs Vitale 59.5% (-17.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stepan 74.4%
Defensive zone
Stepan 77.5%
Neutral zone
Stepan 75.0%
Result
Derek Stepan favored at 75.8%
75.8%
24.2%
Stepan
Vitale
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
6
(7 meetings)
1
6
Stepan
Vitale
Last 7: Stepan 1-6 Vitale
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Vitale
1
2
Stepan
Vitale
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Vitale
0
3
Stepan
Vitale
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Vitale
0
1
Stepan
Vitale
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stepan
Vitale
Edge
Even Strength
43.8% (1,141)
61.7% (274)
-17.9%
Power Play
52.2% (253)
75.0% (4)
-22.8%
Penalty Kill
43.2% (118)
66.7% (42)
-23.5%
On penalty kill, Vitale has a +23.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Vitale shoots right. Stepan is 44.8% vs right-shot opponents (484).
Stepan shoots right. Vitale is 59.1% vs right-shot opponents (88).
Home / Away
Stepan
Vitale
Home
47.8% (828)
69.7% (152)
Away
42.0% (684)
56.0% (168)
By Period
Stepan
Vitale
P1
49.5%
55.9%
P2
42.0%
65.2%
P3
44.3%
66.0%
Final 5 min
47.2%
68.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stepan
50.0%▼
55.5%
45.2%
Vitale
44.0%▼
48.0%
62.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 3, 2014 | 3 | 00:43 | Defensive | Joe Vitale |
| Dec 18, 2013 | 3 | 15:10 | Neutral | Joe Vitale |
| Dec 18, 2013 | 2 | 13:50 | Offensive | Joe Vitale |
| Dec 18, 2013 | 2 | 07:32 | Offensive | Joe Vitale |
| Nov 6, 2013 | 3 | 07:34 | Defensive | Joe Vitale |
| Nov 6, 2013 | 1 | 14:13 | Defensive | Joe Vitale |
| Nov 6, 2013 | 1 | 14:09 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |