Scouting Report
Joe Vitale holds a +8.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Vitale on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Vitale wins 55.9% vs left-shot opponents — Ellis shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Vitale 54.6% vs Ellis 46.8% (+8.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Vitale 76.0%
Defensive zone
Vitale 90.2%
Neutral zone
Vitale 74.0%
Result
Joe Vitale favored at 83.8%
83.8%
16.2%
Vitale
Ellis
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
2
(7 meetings)
5
2
Vitale
Ellis
Last 7: Vitale 5-2 Ellis
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Vitale
Ellis
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Vitale
4
0
Vitale
Ellis
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Ellis
0
1
Vitale
Ellis
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Vitale
Ellis
Edge
Even Strength
55.9% (1,771)
47.3% (607)
+8.6%
Power Play
76.0% (25)
28.6% (7)
+47.4%
Penalty Kill
47.1% (297)
42.1% (95)
+5.0%
On power play, Vitale has a +47.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Ellis shoots left. Vitale is 55.9% vs left-shot opponents (1,430).
Vitale shoots right. Ellis is 35.7% vs right-shot opponents (249).
Home / Away
Vitale
Ellis
Home
56.1% (1,050)
48.5% (303)
Away
53.5% (1,048)
44.8% (406)
By Period
Vitale
Ellis
P1
52.9%
50.0%
P2
53.8%
46.2%
P3
57.5%
41.3%
OT
72.7%
100.0%
Final 5 min
55.0%
42.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Vitale
44.0%▼
48.0%
54.8%
Ellis
42.0%▼
49.0%
46.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 26, 2015 | 3 | 06:36 | Defensive | Joe Vitale |
| Mar 26, 2015 | 2 | 04:56 | Offensive | Joe Vitale |
| Mar 26, 2015 | 1 | 17:45 | Defensive | Joe Vitale |
| Mar 26, 2015 | 1 | 14:14 | Offensive | Matt Ellis |
| Mar 26, 2015 | 1 | 04:39 | Neutral | Matt Ellis |
| Dec 17, 2011 | 1 | 10:52 | Defensive | Joe Vitale |
| Dec 17, 2011 | 1 | 10:44 | Defensive | Joe Vitale |