Scouting Report
Nico Sturm holds a +1.5% FO% edge overall. Vitale wins 55.9% vs left-shot opponents — Sturm shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Vitale 54.6% vs Sturm 56.1% (-1.5%)
Offensive zone
Vitale 57.2%
Defensive zone
Sturm 53.0%
Neutral zone
Sturm 51.5%
Result
Joe Vitale favored at 50.9%
50.9%
49.1%
Vitale
Sturm
No head-to-head faceoffs recorded
Situation Matchup
Situation
Vitale
Sturm
Edge
Even Strength
55.9% (1,771)
57.1% (2,719)
-1.2%
Power Play
76.0% (25)
61.3% (62)
+14.7%
Penalty Kill
47.1% (297)
51.0% (498)
-3.9%
On power play, Vitale has a +14.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Sturm shoots left. Vitale is 55.9% vs left-shot opponents (1,430).
Vitale shoots right. Sturm is 57.9% vs right-shot opponents (1,093).
Home / Away
Vitale
Sturm
Home
56.1% (1,050)
57.1% (1,614)
Away
53.5% (1,048)
55.4% (1,665)
By Period
Vitale
Sturm
P1
52.9%
56.5%
P2
53.8%
54.9%
P3
57.5%
57.4%
OT
72.7%
60.6%
Final 5 min
55.0%
56.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Vitale
44.0%▼
48.0%
54.8%
Sturm
52.0%▼
57.5%
56.3%