Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (54.8% vs 54.2%). Vitale wins 55.9% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Vitale 54.6% vs Hertl 54.2% (+0.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hertl 78.0%
Defensive zone
Vitale 71.8%
Neutral zone
Hertl 58.3%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 54.1%
45.9%
54.1%
Vitale
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
Vitale
Hertl
Last 5: Vitale 4-1 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Vitale
Hertl
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Vitale
2
0
Vitale
Hertl
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Vitale
1
0
Vitale
Hertl
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Vitale
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
55.9% (1,771)
53.8% (8,268)
+2.1%
Power Play
76.0% (25)
59.3% (1,975)
+16.7%
Penalty Kill
47.1% (297)
46.3% (806)
+0.8%
On power play, Vitale has a +16.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Vitale is 55.9% vs left-shot opponents (1,430).
Vitale shoots right. Hertl is 56.8% vs right-shot opponents (4,133).
Home / Away
Vitale
Hertl
Home
56.1% (1,050)
55.7% (5,344)
Away
53.5% (1,048)
52.8% (5,705)
By Period
Vitale
Hertl
P1
52.9%
53.6%
P2
53.8%
54.1%
P3
57.5%
55.3%
OT
72.7%
46.5%
Final 5 min
55.0%
54.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Vitale
44.0%▼
48.0%
54.8%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
54.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 13, 2015 | 3 | 03:42 | Offensive | Joe Vitale |
| Jan 13, 2015 | 2 | 19:22 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 13, 2015 | 2 | 16:21 | Defensive | Joe Vitale |
| Jan 13, 2015 | 2 | 12:28 | Defensive | Joe Vitale |
| Jan 13, 2015 | 1 | 08:06 | Neutral | Joe Vitale |