Scouting Report
Pavel Zacha holds a +1.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Kellman on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Kellman wins 45.3% vs left-shot opponents — Zacha shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kellman 48.1% vs Zacha 49.1% (-1.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Zacha 70.0%
Defensive zone
Kellman 50.8%
Neutral zone
Zacha 53.0%
Result
Pavel Zacha favored at 58.7%
41.3%
58.7%
Kellman
Zacha
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
2
(7 meetings)
5
2
Kellman
Zacha
Last 7: Kellman 5-2 Zacha
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Kellman
2
1
Kellman
Zacha
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kellman
2
1
Kellman
Zacha
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kellman
1
0
Kellman
Zacha
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kellman
Zacha
Edge
Even Strength
46.5% (275)
48.9% (5,102)
-2.4%
Power Play
75.0% (8)
55.6% (804)
+19.4%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (10)
42.2% (555)
+7.8%
On power play, Kellman has a +19.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Zacha shoots left. Kellman is 45.3% vs left-shot opponents (212).
Kellman shoots left. Zacha is 47.8% vs left-shot opponents (3,921).
Home / Away
Kellman
Zacha
Home
42.5% (146)
49.7% (3,353)
Away
52.4% (147)
48.5% (3,108)
By Period
Kellman
Zacha
P1
48.0%
49.9%
P2
53.3%
49.2%
P3
41.9%
48.1%
Final 5 min
53.0%
47.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kellman
50.0%▬
50.5%
47.4%
Zacha
46.0%▼
50.5%
49.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 27, 2020 | 3 | 13:18 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Feb 27, 2020 | 3 | 09:23 | Offensive | Joel Kellman |
| Feb 27, 2020 | 2 | 16:32 | Defensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Feb 20, 2020 | 3 | 07:32 | Offensive | Joel Kellman |
| Feb 20, 2020 | 2 | 15:38 | Defensive | Joel Kellman |
| Feb 20, 2020 | 2 | 15:17 | Neutral | Joel Kellman |
| Feb 20, 2020 | 1 | 01:35 | Defensive | Joel Kellman |