Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (44.3% vs 45.2%). Look for Ward on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Henrique wins 42.1% vs right-shot opponents — Ward shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Henrique 44.9% vs Ward 46.8% (-0.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Henrique 55.6%
Defensive zone
Henrique 55.6%
Neutral zone
Henrique 52.0%
Result
Adam Henrique favored at 55.6%
55.6%
44.4%
Henrique
Ward
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
5
(5 meetings)
0
5
Henrique
Ward
Last 5: Henrique 0-5 Ward
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Ward
0
1
Henrique
Ward
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Ward
0
4
Henrique
Ward
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Henrique
Ward
Edge
Even Strength
43.8% (656)
55.0% (80)
-11.2%
Power Play
44.7% (152)
43.9% (57)
+0.8%
Penalty Kill
47.3% (110)
33.9% (62)
+13.4%
On penalty kill, Henrique has a +13.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Ward shoots right. Henrique is 42.1% vs right-shot opponents (378).
Henrique shoots left. Ward is 48.5% vs left-shot opponents (167).
Home / Away
Henrique
Ward
Home
45.3% (422)
50.9% (114)
Away
43.5% (496)
37.6% (85)
By Period
Henrique
Ward
P1
44.3%
42.6%
P2
44.1%
38.5%
P3
45.5%
54.8%
OT
26.7%
28.6%
Final 5 min
44.7%
41.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Henrique
52.0%▬
52.5%
44.3%
Ward
44.0%▼
47.0%
45.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 8, 2014 | 2 | 05:47 | Defensive | Joel Ward |
| Feb 8, 2014 | 1 | 10:10 | Offensive | Joel Ward |
| Jan 24, 2014 | 2 | 01:58 | Defensive | Joel Ward |
| Dec 21, 2013 | 2 | 04:07 | Defensive | Joel Ward |
| Dec 21, 2013 | 1 | 14:47 | Defensive | Joel Ward |