Scouting Report
Joel Ward holds a +7.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Ward on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 6 meetings). Caggiula wins 41.1% vs right-shot opponents — Ward shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Caggiula 43.5% vs Ward 49.1% (-7.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Ward 55.7%
Defensive zone
Ward 71.2%
Neutral zone
Ward 63.2%
Result
Joel Ward favored at 62.4%
37.6%
62.4%
Caggiula
Ward
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
4
(9 meetings)
5
4
Caggiula
Ward
Last 9: Caggiula 5-4 Ward
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Caggiula
2
0
Caggiula
Ward
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Caggiula
1
0
Caggiula
Ward
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Ward
2
4
Caggiula
Ward
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Caggiula
Ward
Edge
Even Strength
40.6% (276)
52.8% (339)
-12.2%
Power Play
66.7% (6)
48.5% (33)
+18.2%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (2)
33.3% (84)
+16.7%
On power play, Caggiula has a +18.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Ward shoots right. Caggiula is 41.1% vs right-shot opponents (112).
Caggiula shoots left. Ward is 49.0% vs left-shot opponents (353).
Home / Away
Caggiula
Ward
Home
46.9% (145)
53.4% (251)
Away
35.3% (139)
43.4% (205)
By Period
Caggiula
Ward
P1
41.1%
49.4%
P2
40.2%
46.9%
P3
43.0%
50.3%
Final 5 min
44.4%
47.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Caggiula
38.0%▲
36.5%
41.2%
Ward
44.0%▼
47.0%
48.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 6, 2017 | 2 | 12:30 | Neutral | Drake Caggiula |
| Mar 30, 2017 | 1 | 09:19 | Defensive | Drake Caggiula |
| Jan 10, 2017 | 3 | 05:06 | Neutral | Joel Ward |
| Jan 10, 2017 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Joel Ward |
| Jan 10, 2017 | 2 | 17:34 | Offensive | Drake Caggiula |
| Jan 10, 2017 | 1 | 01:39 | Neutral | Drake Caggiula |
| Jan 10, 2017 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Joel Ward |
| Dec 23, 2016 | 3 | 06:48 | Offensive | Drake Caggiula |
| Dec 23, 2016 | 3 | 01:53 | Neutral | Joel Ward |