Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +5.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Duchene on offensive-zone draws (73% H2H, 11 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Ward 48.4% vs Duchene 54.1% (-5.8%)
H2H factor
Duchene leads 12-6 in 18 meetings
Offensive zone
Ward 69.5%
Defensive zone
Ward 81.7%
Neutral zone
Ward 70.0%
Result
Joel Ward favored at 73.6%
73.6%
26.4%
Ward
Duchene
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
12
(18 meetings)
6
12
Ward
Duchene
Last 10: Ward 4-6 Duchene
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
3
8
Ward
Duchene
11 total
Defensive Zone
Even
3
3
Ward
Duchene
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Duchene
0
1
Ward
Duchene
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Ward
Duchene
Edge
Even Strength
51.3% (1,186)
53.9% (10,396)
-2.6%
Power Play
53.4% (238)
56.9% (1,665)
-3.5%
Penalty Kill
35.5% (366)
49.1% (468)
-13.6%
On penalty kill, Duchene has a +13.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Duchene shoots left. Ward is 48.6% vs left-shot opponents (1,320).
Ward shoots right. Duchene is 55.2% vs right-shot opponents (4,494).
Home / Away
Ward
Duchene
Home
50.3% (870)
55.6% (6,411)
Away
46.5% (921)
52.7% (6,142)
By Period
Ward
Duchene
P1
47.6%
54.5%
P2
47.5%
54.5%
P3
50.3%
53.4%
OT
30.8%
56.3%
Final 5 min
45.4%
53.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Ward
44.0%▼
47.0%
48.4%
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
54.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 9, 2017 | 1 | 11:25 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 21, 2017 | 3 | 19:02 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 21, 2017 | 3 | 04:48 | Offensive | Joel Ward |
| Jan 21, 2017 | 1 | 08:34 | Defensive | Joel Ward |
| Feb 24, 2016 | 3 | 10:05 | Offensive | Joel Ward |
| Feb 24, 2016 | 3 | 05:13 | Defensive | Joel Ward |
| Feb 24, 2016 | 2 | 15:19 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 24, 2016 | 2 | 15:12 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 26, 2016 | 2 | 19:21 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 26, 2016 | 1 | 17:02 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 26, 2016 | 1 | 07:05 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Dec 28, 2015 | 3 | 06:16 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Nov 1, 2015 | 3 | 14:12 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Nov 1, 2015 | 2 | 12:03 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Nov 1, 2015 | 2 | 10:11 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Nov 1, 2015 | 1 | 12:28 | Defensive | Joel Ward |
| Oct 12, 2013 | 3 | 11:19 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Oct 12, 2013 | 3 | 04:14 | Offensive | Joel Ward |