Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +9.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Duchene on offensive-zone draws (86% H2H, 7 meetings). Ward wins 46.7% vs left-shot opponents — Duchene shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Ward 48.4% vs Duchene 57.0% (-9.8%)
H2H factor
Duchene leads 9-3 in 12 meetings
Offensive zone
Ward 58.8%
Defensive zone
Ward 86.9%
Neutral zone
Ward 69.2%
Result
Joel Ward favored at 69.0%
69.0%
31.0%
Ward
Duchene
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
9
(12 meetings)
3
9
Ward
Duchene
Last 10: Ward 2-8 Duchene
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
1
6
Ward
Duchene
7 total
Defensive Zone
Even
2
2
Ward
Duchene
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Duchene
0
1
Ward
Duchene
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Ward
Duchene
Edge
Even Strength
49.3% (353)
56.5% (527)
-7.2%
Power Play
69.0% (42)
61.6% (185)
+7.4%
Penalty Kill
34.7% (98)
59.3% (27)
-24.6%
On penalty kill, Duchene has a +24.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Duchene shoots left. Ward is 46.7% vs left-shot opponents (338).
Ward shoots right. Duchene is 59.8% vs right-shot opponents (343).
Home / Away
Ward
Duchene
Home
48.4% (219)
57.6% (403)
Away
47.8% (274)
58.3% (336)
By Period
Ward
Duchene
P1
43.0%
61.4%
P2
51.4%
58.5%
P3
50.0%
54.9%
OT
33.3%
40.0%
Final 5 min
41.8%
62.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Ward
44.0%▼
47.0%
48.1%
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
57.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 24, 2016 | 3 | 10:05 | Offensive | Joel Ward |
| Feb 24, 2016 | 3 | 05:13 | Defensive | Joel Ward |
| Feb 24, 2016 | 2 | 15:19 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 24, 2016 | 2 | 15:12 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 26, 2016 | 2 | 19:21 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 26, 2016 | 1 | 17:02 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 26, 2016 | 1 | 07:05 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Dec 28, 2015 | 3 | 06:16 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Nov 1, 2015 | 3 | 14:12 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Nov 1, 2015 | 2 | 12:03 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Nov 1, 2015 | 2 | 10:11 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Nov 1, 2015 | 1 | 12:28 | Defensive | Joel Ward |