Scouting Report
Paul Stastny holds a +6.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Stastny on offensive-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Ward 49.1% vs Stastny 55.4% (-6.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Ward 61.2%
Defensive zone
Ward 64.7%
Neutral zone
Ward 63.7%
Result
Joel Ward favored at 62.1%
62.1%
37.9%
Ward
Stastny
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
5
(7 meetings)
2
5
Ward
Stastny
Last 7: Ward 2-5 Stastny
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stastny
2
3
Ward
Stastny
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stastny
0
1
Ward
Stastny
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Stastny
0
1
Ward
Stastny
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Ward
Stastny
Edge
Even Strength
52.8% (339)
55.4% (1,004)
-2.6%
Power Play
48.5% (33)
59.0% (210)
-10.5%
Penalty Kill
33.3% (84)
54.1% (196)
-20.8%
On penalty kill, Stastny has a +20.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stastny shoots left. Ward is 49.0% vs left-shot opponents (353).
Ward shoots right. Stastny is 56.6% vs right-shot opponents (579).
Home / Away
Ward
Stastny
Home
53.4% (251)
56.5% (717)
Away
43.4% (205)
55.0% (693)
By Period
Ward
Stastny
P1
49.4%
56.7%
P2
46.9%
57.7%
P3
50.3%
52.1%
Final 5 min
47.1%
59.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Ward
44.0%▼
47.0%
48.9%
Stastny
52.0%▼
55.5%
55.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 16, 2017 | 3 | 08:22 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| Mar 16, 2017 | 1 | 04:42 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| Jan 14, 2017 | 3 | 05:46 | Offensive | Joel Ward |
| Jan 14, 2017 | 3 | 05:38 | Offensive | Joel Ward |
| Jan 14, 2017 | 2 | 15:37 | Neutral | Paul Stastny |
| Jan 14, 2017 | 2 | 13:52 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| Nov 17, 2016 | 2 | 16:56 | Defensive | Paul Stastny |