Scouting Report
Johan Larsson holds a +5.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Barbashev on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 6 meetings). Barbashev wins 45.5% vs left-shot opponents — Larsson shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Barbashev 45.7% vs Larsson 48.8% (-5.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Larsson 56.9%
Defensive zone
Larsson 83.8%
Neutral zone
Larsson 70.9%
Result
Johan Larsson favored at 70.7%
29.3%
70.7%
Barbashev
Larsson
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
3
(8 meetings)
5
3
Barbashev
Larsson
Last 8: Barbashev 5-3 Larsson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Barbashev
1
0
Barbashev
Larsson
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Larsson
0
1
Barbashev
Larsson
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Barbashev
4
2
Barbashev
Larsson
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Barbashev
Larsson
Edge
Even Strength
46.8% (154)
50.2% (504)
-3.4%
Penalty Kill
28.6% (35)
41.7% (96)
-13.1%
On penalty kill, Larsson has a +13.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Larsson shoots left. Barbashev is 45.5% vs left-shot opponents (121).
Barbashev shoots left. Larsson is 47.3% vs left-shot opponents (440).
Home / Away
Barbashev
Larsson
Home
40.6% (101)
48.2% (272)
Away
46.6% (88)
49.0% (337)
By Period
Barbashev
Larsson
P1
43.3%
48.6%
P2
41.1%
56.1%
P3
45.5%
41.0%
Final 5 min
34.8%
39.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Barbashev
22.0%▼
35.0%
43.4%
Larsson
40.0%▼
46.5%
48.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 17, 2021 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ivan Barbashev |
| Apr 17, 2021 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Johan Larsson |
| Apr 17, 2021 | 1 | 05:08 | Offensive | Ivan Barbashev |
| Apr 17, 2021 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ivan Barbashev |
| Feb 12, 2021 | 3 | 05:04 | Neutral | Ivan Barbashev |
| Feb 12, 2021 | 3 | 01:55 | Defensive | Johan Larsson |
| Feb 6, 2021 | 3 | 19:34 | Neutral | Johan Larsson |
| Feb 2, 2021 | 1 | 07:35 | Neutral | Ivan Barbashev |