Scouting Report
Johan Larsson holds a +13.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Hayes on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Hayes wins 37.1% vs left-shot opponents — Larsson shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hayes 43.4% vs Larsson 51.0% (-13.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hayes 65.0%
Defensive zone
Larsson 88.6%
Neutral zone
Larsson 64.2%
Result
Johan Larsson favored at 56.4%
43.6%
56.4%
Hayes
Larsson
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Hayes
Larsson
Last 5: Hayes 3-2 Larsson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hayes
2
1
Hayes
Larsson
3 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Hayes
Larsson
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hayes
Larsson
Edge
Even Strength
38.8% (85)
51.3% (696)
-12.5%
Power Play
33.3% (27)
56.3% (32)
-23.0%
On power play, Larsson has a +23.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Larsson shoots left. Hayes is 37.1% vs left-shot opponents (70).
Hayes shoots right. Larsson is 50.5% vs right-shot opponents (275).
Home / Away
Hayes
Larsson
Home
35.7% (56)
51.1% (356)
Away
39.3% (56)
51.1% (403)
By Period
Hayes
Larsson
P1
35.7%
54.6%
P2
33.3%
51.9%
P3
42.2%
46.7%
Final 5 min
36.4%
51.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hayes
28.0%▼
35.5%
37.5%
Larsson
40.0%▼
46.5%
51.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 6, 2016 | 3 | 10:27 | Offensive | Johan Larsson |
| Feb 6, 2016 | 3 | 04:02 | Defensive | Johan Larsson |
| Feb 6, 2016 | 3 | 01:41 | Defensive | Jimmy Hayes |
| Feb 6, 2016 | 1 | 14:01 | Offensive | Jimmy Hayes |
| Feb 6, 2016 | 1 | 11:23 | Offensive | Jimmy Hayes |