Scouting Report
John McCarthy holds a +3.4% FO% edge overall. Look for McCarthy on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). McCarthy wins 54.1% vs left-shot opponents — Mitchell shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McCarthy 51.9% vs Mitchell 50.0% (+3.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McCarthy 79.7%
Defensive zone
McCarthy 50.8%
Neutral zone
McCarthy 67.1%
Result
John McCarthy favored at 71.3%
71.3%
28.7%
McCarthy
Mitchell
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
1
(6 meetings)
5
1
McCarthy
Mitchell
Last 6: McCarthy 5-1 Mitchell
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McCarthy
2
0
McCarthy
Mitchell
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McCarthy
3
1
McCarthy
Mitchell
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McCarthy
Mitchell
Edge
Even Strength
54.9% (122)
50.6% (607)
+4.3%
Power Play
50.0% (4)
61.2% (49)
-11.2%
Penalty Kill
28.6% (7)
40.2% (92)
-11.6%
On penalty kill, Mitchell has a +11.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Mitchell shoots left. McCarthy is 54.1% vs left-shot opponents (85).
McCarthy shoots left. Mitchell is 47.9% vs left-shot opponents (457).
Home / Away
McCarthy
Mitchell
Home
58.6% (70)
52.0% (406)
Away
47.6% (63)
47.7% (342)
By Period
McCarthy
Mitchell
P1
46.5%
51.6%
P2
63.6%
44.0%
P3
50.0%
55.0%
Final 5 min
53.1%
56.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McCarthy
60.0%▲
48.5%
53.4%
Mitchell
66.0%▲
56.5%
50.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 4, 2014 | 1 | 11:40 | Neutral | John McCarthy |
| Dec 23, 2013 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | John McCarthy |
| Dec 23, 2013 | 2 | 13:29 | Offensive | John McCarthy |
| Dec 23, 2013 | 2 | 13:25 | Neutral | John Mitchell |
| Dec 23, 2013 | 2 | 01:12 | Offensive | John McCarthy |
| Dec 23, 2013 | 1 | 11:05 | Neutral | John McCarthy |