Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +14.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Tavares on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Rolston wins 36.0% vs left-shot opponents — Tavares shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Rolston 43.4% vs Tavares 52.4% (-14.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tavares 81.1%
Defensive zone
Tavares 59.3%
Neutral zone
Tavares 62.0%
Result
John Tavares favored at 69.0%
31.0%
69.0%
Rolston
Tavares
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
3
(7 meetings)
4
3
Rolston
Tavares
Last 7: Rolston 4-3 Tavares
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
1
2
Rolston
Tavares
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Rolston
2
1
Rolston
Tavares
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Rolston
1
0
Rolston
Tavares
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Rolston
Tavares
Edge
Even Strength
35.0% (80)
52.1% (992)
-17.1%
Power Play
63.6% (11)
53.7% (294)
+9.9%
Penalty Kill
39.5% (43)
50.0% (22)
-10.5%
On even strength, Tavares has a +17.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Tavares shoots left. Rolston is 36.0% vs left-shot opponents (89).
Rolston shoots left. Tavares is 54.1% vs left-shot opponents (857).
Home / Away
Rolston
Tavares
Home
36.6% (71)
51.7% (679)
Away
40.6% (64)
53.4% (640)
By Period
Rolston
Tavares
P1
35.1%
52.2%
P2
38.0%
49.3%
P3
42.2%
56.3%
OT
33.3%
57.1%
Final 5 min
43.2%
51.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Rolston
50.0%▲
42.5%
38.5%
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
52.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 30, 2011 | 2 | 00:08 | Defensive | Brian Rolston |
| Mar 12, 2011 | 3 | 15:38 | Offensive | Brian Rolston |
| Mar 12, 2011 | 2 | 11:19 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 6, 2011 | 3 | 00:32 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 17, 2011 | 2 | 00:50 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 17, 2011 | 1 | 05:56 | Defensive | Brian Rolston |
| Nov 26, 2010 | 1 | 00:41 | Neutral | Brian Rolston |