Scouting Report
Chris Thorburn holds a +6.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Tavares on offensive-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings). Thorburn wins 54.3% vs left-shot opponents — Tavares shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Thorburn 53.3% vs Tavares 51.2% (+6.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tavares 65.4%
Defensive zone
Thorburn 52.3%
Neutral zone
Tavares 51.7%
Result
John Tavares favored at 63.1%
36.9%
63.1%
Thorburn
Tavares
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
3
(6 meetings)
3
3
Thorburn
Tavares
Last 6: Thorburn 3-3 Tavares
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
2
3
Thorburn
Tavares
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Thorburn
1
0
Thorburn
Tavares
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Thorburn
Tavares
Edge
Even Strength
58.6% (58)
51.5% (1,232)
+7.1%
Power Play
50.0% (2)
51.1% (305)
-1.1%
Penalty Kill
57.1% (7)
36.7% (30)
+20.4%
On penalty kill, Thorburn has a +20.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Tavares shoots left. Thorburn is 54.3% vs left-shot opponents (46).
Thorburn shoots right. Tavares is 46.5% vs right-shot opponents (501).
Home / Away
Thorburn
Tavares
Home
63.2% (38)
52.8% (781)
Away
51.7% (29)
49.9% (804)
By Period
Thorburn
Tavares
P1
57.7%
52.8%
P2
56.5%
52.1%
P3
61.1%
48.7%
Final 5 min
66.7%
51.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Thorburn
52.0%▼
57.0%
58.2%
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
51.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 14, 2012 | 2 | 06:08 | Offensive | Chris Thorburn |
| Dec 20, 2011 | 2 | 13:32 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 3, 2011 | 3 | 04:30 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 3, 2011 | 2 | 16:53 | Neutral | Chris Thorburn |
| Nov 3, 2011 | 1 | 07:57 | Offensive | Chris Thorburn |
| Nov 3, 2011 | 1 | 01:31 | Offensive | John Tavares |