Scouting Report
Jesse Winchester holds a +3.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Tavares on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Winchester wins 54.8% vs left-shot opponents — Tavares shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Winchester 54.7% vs Tavares 52.4% (+3.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tavares 80.0%
Defensive zone
Winchester 67.9%
Neutral zone
Tavares 56.2%
Result
John Tavares favored at 52.7%
47.3%
52.7%
Winchester
Tavares
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
6
(7 meetings)
1
6
Winchester
Tavares
Last 7: Winchester 1-6 Tavares
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
0
1
Winchester
Tavares
1 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Winchester
Tavares
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Tavares
0
4
Winchester
Tavares
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Winchester
Tavares
Edge
Even Strength
56.1% (469)
52.1% (992)
+4.0%
Power Play
41.7% (12)
53.7% (294)
-12.0%
Penalty Kill
57.4% (61)
50.0% (22)
+7.4%
On power play, Tavares has a +12.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Tavares shoots left. Winchester is 54.8% vs left-shot opponents (378).
Winchester shoots right. Tavares is 49.6% vs right-shot opponents (462).
Home / Away
Winchester
Tavares
Home
56.9% (299)
51.7% (679)
Away
54.1% (246)
53.4% (640)
By Period
Winchester
Tavares
P1
49.7%
52.2%
P2
59.8%
49.3%
P3
56.4%
56.3%
OT
75.0%
57.1%
Final 5 min
54.0%
51.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Winchester
44.0%▼
50.5%
55.6%
Tavares
52.0%▼
57.5%
52.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 5, 2011 | 3 | 19:51 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Feb 5, 2011 | 2 | 13:57 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Feb 5, 2011 | 1 | 08:21 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 13, 2011 | 3 | 16:12 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Jan 13, 2011 | 3 | 13:59 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 13, 2011 | 3 | 02:29 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Jan 13, 2011 | 2 | 05:34 | Defensive | Jesse Winchester |