Scouting Report
Mike Santorelli holds a +10.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Santorelli on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Tavares wins 43.7% vs right-shot opponents — Santorelli shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 49.4% vs Santorelli 54.6% (-10.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tavares 75.5%
Defensive zone
Santorelli 54.1%
Neutral zone
Tavares 61.9%
Result
John Tavares favored at 58.7%
58.7%
41.3%
Tavares
Santorelli
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Tavares
Santorelli
Last 5: Tavares 2-3 Santorelli
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
1
0
Tavares
Santorelli
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Santorelli
1
3
Tavares
Santorelli
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
Santorelli
Edge
Even Strength
48.6% (716)
59.6% (89)
-11.0%
Power Play
52.4% (208)
60.0% (5)
-7.6%
On even strength, Santorelli has a +11.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Santorelli shoots right. Tavares is 43.7% vs right-shot opponents (398).
Tavares shoots left. Santorelli is 50.0% vs left-shot opponents (58).
Home / Away
Tavares
Santorelli
Home
50.7% (448)
62.3% (53)
Away
48.1% (482)
56.1% (41)
By Period
Tavares
Santorelli
P1
52.8%
51.6%
P2
51.4%
70.6%
P3
43.7%
55.2%
Final 5 min
48.6%
66.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
49.4%
Santorelli
40.0%▼
46.5%
59.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 20, 2013 | 3 | 13:07 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 24, 2013 | 3 | 06:23 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Mar 24, 2013 | 2 | 13:06 | Neutral | Mike Santorelli |
| Mar 24, 2013 | 2 | 12:51 | Neutral | Mike Santorelli |
| Mar 24, 2013 | 2 | 03:17 | Neutral | Mike Santorelli |